The FM is trying to rekindle foreigners’ old love affair with India
The Indian stock...
While Nariman has not given any reason for quitting his post, there have been speculations that he was unhappy over certain directions of law minister Ashwani Kumar and the ministry
Solicitor General of India (SG) Rohinton Nariman resigned put in his papers, 18 months after his appointment. The 56-year-old senior advocate was appointed as the SG, the second senior-most law officer of the country, on 23 July 2011.
While Nariman has not given any reason for quitting his post, there have been speculations that he was unhappy over certain directions of law minister Ashwani Kumar and the ministry. He was appointed after the then SG Gopal Subramaniam had resigned on 14 July 2011.
Subramaniam had resigned SG as the government appointed Nariman as special counsel to represent the government in a 2G related case in the Supreme Court, apparently without his knowledge.
Nariman is the son of eminent jurist Fali S Nariman. He argued for Mukesh Ambani’s RIL along with senior advocate Harish Salve in the dispute over the supply and pricing of gas from KG basin between the Ambani brothers.
Nariman was designated as a senior advocate at the age of 37 years in 1993 when the then Chief Justice of India M N Venkatachaliah amended the rules, for designating a lawyer as a senior advocate, by reducing the minimum age limit of 45 years.
RBI’s sector-wise monthly loan data for December 2012 reveals that credit cards, personal loans and vehicle loans are doing well
The RBI (Reserve Bank of India), in a sector-wise analysis of credit growth, released its monthly loan data for December 2012 and a Nomura Equity Research analysis of the key trends reveals a few important observations:
(a) Loan growth for FY13 is most likely to range around 13%-14%. YTD (year-to-date) loan growth has been 7.8% (non-annualised) and assuming the same quantum of loans in 4QFY13 as disbursed during 4QFY12, Nomura arrives at FY13F loan growth of 13.5%;
(b) Retail loans and agriculture loans are tracking the strongest—retail loans growing at 16.5% year-on-year and agriculture loans growing at 21.4% year-on-year. Within retail, the segments doing well are non-collateralized loans (credit cards and personal loans) and vehicle loans;
(c) Industry loans continue to be weak and YTD, the key growth drivers within the industry have been power, iron and steel, chemicals and roads.
As of December 2012, aggregate non-food credit growth was 14.3% year-on-year with primary contributions from industry (13.7% year-on-year), agriculture (21.4% year-on-year) and retail (16.5% year-on-year).
On an YTD basis (April-December 2012), aggregate non-food credit growth was 7.8% over the base of March 2012 compared with 17% in FY12 and 20.6% in FY11. The key contributions to YTD growth have come from retail loans at 9.8% and services at 8%. Agriculture loans grew at 7% while SME loans grew at 4%. Ex-infra industry growth was 5.5% during this period, according to the Nomura analysts’ computation.
Within the industry sector, YTD growth for key sub-sectors was at 17.8% for power, 15.7% for iron and steel, 9.7% for engineering, 10.6% for roads, and 10.8% for chemicals. Loans to the telecom sector were flat YTD, points out Nomura.
Within retail loans, vehicle loans had the highest YTD growth at 16.6%, followed by non-collateralised loans at 13.7% and mortgages at 9.5%. On a year-on-year basis, vehicle loans grew at 22.2%, non-collateralised loans at 26.4% and mortgages at 16.4%.
In the services segment, loans to NBFCs (non-banking finance companies) had the highest YTD growth at 14.3%. This is weaker than the growth seen during similar periods of FY12 and FY11. Trade and commercial real estate loans had YTD growth of 13.7% and 11%, respectively.
If it is assumed that the same quantum of loan growth for January 2013 to March 2013 as was achieved during January 2012-March 2012, then the banking sector is likely to have loan growth of 13.5% for FY13F. This is marginally lower than the Nomura estimate of 14% calculated with the data for the period ending November 2012.
Assuming that all these major sectors add loans similar to the quantum seen in January 2013-March 2013, Nomura believes that the banking sector is looking at the following potential growth rates for FY13F: aggregate non-food credit growth of 13.5%; industry growth of 13%; agriculture growth of 18.8%; SME growth of 11%; and retail loan growth of 15.5%.