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Domestic demand in India still very weak, says Nomura

A sustained growth recovery led by the revival of the investment cycle is more likely after Q3 2014 and that too is contingent on a stable political outcome in the forthcoming general elections, warns Nomura in a research note

Current data on the Indian economy confirms that domestic demand is still very weak and overall growth remains supported by external demand, cautions Nomura in a research note. Nomura expects India’s GDP growth to continue to consolidate in the 4.5-5.0% range until Q3 2014. Net exports should be supported by better global growth and weak domestic demand. However, private domestic demand is unlikely to pick up in the next few quarters because of high inflation, monetary tightening and political uncertainty ahead of the elections. Further, fiscal austerity is likely to be an additional drag on growth in the next few quarters.

 

According to Nomura, a sustained growth recovery led by the revival of the investment cycle is more likely after Q3 2014 and that too is contingent on a stable political outcome in the forthcoming general elections. It expect GDP growth to average 4.7% year-on-year in FY14 (year ending March 2014), up from 4.5% in FY13 and then pick up further to 5.0% in FY15. Further, the advanced GDP growth estimate of 4.9% in FY14 is likely to be revised lower (closer to our estimate of 4.7%) as growth has averaged only at 4.6% in the first three quarters of the fiscal year and is unlikely to see a substantial improvement in the final quarter.

 

The basic GDP growth performance is summarised in the table below:
 

 

Nomura analysts have the following points to make on the overall GDP analysis in the Indian economy:

 

(a) Real GDP growth eased to 4.7% y-o-y in Q4 2013 from 4.8% in Q3, slightly lower than market expectations;

(b) Agriculture growth eased to 3.6% y-o-y from 4.6% in Q3, while GDP growth ex-agriculture improved marginally to 4.9% from 4.8% as the pickup in service sector growth more than offset the contraction in the industrial sector;

(c) From the demand side, growth was supported by strong growth in exports and to some extent government spending. In comparison, private domestic demand remained very weak, with both private consumption and fixed investment growth still around their lows.

(d) Nomura expects GDP growth to remain in the 4.5-5.0% range in the coming quarters as domestic demand is likely to remain weak, while export demand is expected to remain strong. Overall, we expect GDP growth to average 4.7% in FY14 and 5.0% in FY15.

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Pulse Beat

Medical developments from around the world

Pentavalent Vaccine-related Deaths
Government of India is trying to undermine the seriousness of deaths following this new vaccine which it wants to spread all over India. One wonders why the government is so keen to push this down the throat of hapless children, when doubts about the vaccine are being voiced all over the world.

One has only to find out who owns the vaccine companies?!!

Screening for Neck Arteries!
Adults should not be screened for narrowing of the neck arteries, according to a draft recommendation from the influential US Preventive Services Task Force. Narrowing of the neck arteries, formally called ‘carotid artery stenosis’, reduces blood flow to the brain and is a risk factor for stroke. “The carotid artery is the blood vessel that brings blood to the brain,” explained Dr Peter Faries, chief of vascular surgery at the Mount Sinai Hospital in New York. “Coronary artery starts in the chest and travels through the neck until it enters the skull.” The market-driven ‘medical-scare’ system now recommends this screening routinely; but there seems to be no evidence to support this claim!

Pulsed Electromagnetic Field Therapy (PEMF)
PEMF is like a whole body battery charger. It helps to recharge the 1,000 trillion body cells by improving ATP (adenosine triphosphate) production, increasing tissue oxygenation, enhancing circulation, promoting cellular hydration, facilitating detoxification, and improving overall absorption of nutrients.  In this era of multiple unhealthy electromagnetic energy waves coming from radios, cell phones, cordless phones, computers, microwave cookers, Wi-Fi , Internet, and what have you, PEMF is like a small jumper cable on body cells to jump-start them back to health.  Our bodies are but energy; mind is also the same. The third dimension of energy comes from the earth’s geomagnetic field and the Schumann ring around the globe of Sun’s EMF.

More than 10,000 scientific papers and more than 2,000 double-blind studies have been carried out all over the world on the uselfulness of PEMF. It started in Russia and Europe. Our group introduced this in India and already more than 500 patients have undergone this therapy. We have shown this to be very useful in acute tissue damage, inflammation and many other painful conditions. For restoring health, this is a boon.
 
Dengue Fever
Dengue fever is caused by a family of viruses transmitted by mosquitoes. It is an acute illness of sudden onset that usually follows a benign course with symptoms such as headache, fever, exhaustion, severe muscle and joint pain, swollen lymph nodes (lymphadenopathy) and rash. Presence of fever, rash, and headache (the ‘dengue triad’) is the particular characteristic of dengue. Other signs include bleeding gums, severe pain behind the eyes and red palms and soles.

Dengue can affect anyone; but it tends to be more severe in people with compromised immune systems. Because it is caused by one of five serotypes of virus, it is possible to get dengue fever multiple times. However, an attack of dengue produces immunity for a lifetime to that particular viral serotype to which the patient was exposed.

Haemorrhagic dengue is a more serious condition and requires careful management; but, by and large, dengue does not warrant any scare-mongering. Improve your immune system and dengue will not bother you.

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