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Weak trend may persist unless the Nifty manages to close above 5,348
The market snapped its five week gaining streak to finish the week lower on a mixed set of corporate results and slowing industrial growth. Global growth concerns also weighed on investors. The market will now focus on June inflation data, set to be released on Monday, which will have a bearing on the RBI’s policy review at the end of the month, and quarterly corporate results.
The Sensex closed the week down 307 points (1.75%) at 17,214 and the Nifty settled at 5,227, a loss of 90 points or 1.69%. If the Nifty closes strongly below 5,190, we may see a serious downturn setting in. We may see weak trend persisting unless the index manages to close above 5,348 for change in the trend.
The benchmarks settled lower on Monday on dismal economic data from across the world. Optimism after European policymakers approved a financial package for Spanish banks helped the market settle higher on Tuesday. However, a sell-off in blue chips saw the market settling in the negative on Wednesday.
The subdued dollar guidance by IT giant Infosys dragged the market lower on Thursday with the IT sector ending as the top sectoral loser. On Friday the market erased all its gains in the second half of trade on profit booking to settle lower.
Among the sectoral indices, BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods and BSE Healthcare ended flat while others settled lower. The top losers were BST IT and BSE TECk (down 5%) each.
The top Sensex gainers were ONGC (up 2%), GAIL India, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, Coal India and HDFC Bank (up 1% each). The losers were led by Infosys (down 9%), Wipro (down 8%), Jindal Steel & Power, Tata Steel and Tata Power (down 5% each).
The Nifty was led by ONGC, GAIL (up 2% each), BPCL, HDFC Bank and Coal India (up 1% each). The losers in the week were Infosys (down 9%), Wipro (down 8%), Jindal Steel & Power, Tata Steel and Tata Power (down 5% each).
Industrial production growth rate slowed to 2.4% in May 2012 due to contraction in capital goods and mining output, coupled with poor show by manufacturing sector. The Index of Industrial Production was 6.2% in May 2011. Meanwhile, the industrial growth rate for April 2012 was revised to -0.9% from 0.1%, as reported earlier.
India’s exports contracted by 5.45%, year-on-year, to $25.07 billion in June due to the persisting global economic slowdown. Imports also declined by 13.46% to $35.37 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $10.3 billion, according to the Director General of Foreign Trade A Pujari.
During the April-June quarter of the current fiscal exports shrank 1.7% to $75.2 billion over the first quarter of 2011-12. Imports also dipped by 6.1% during the first quarter of 2012-13 to $115.26 billion. Trade deficit in Q1 declined to $40.06 billion, from $46.30 billion in April-June last fiscal.
Among key corporates which declared their Q1 earnings reports, Infosys was a disappointment while TCS and HDFC and HDFC Bank were in line with market expectations. Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Reliance Industries are some of the key companies that will declare their results next week.
On the global front, Moody's Investors Service on Friday downgraded Italy’s government bond rating by two notches to ‘Baa2’ from ‘A3’, with a warning that it could cut it much further if the country were to lose access to debt markets.
Moody’s said the downgrade was driven by Italy’s increased susceptibility to political event risk, such as a Greek exit from the euro zone or Spain requiring further aid.
US stocks rose for the week, reversing losses on Friday following good gains in JPMorgan Chase & Co and hopes that China will initiate fresh steps to boost growth amid concern about earnings and the global economy.