The market lacks momentum. Nifty can decline if it closes below 7,750
We had mentioned in previous week’s closing report that NSE’s CNX Nifty, and S&P BSE Sensex are within days of a sharp short-term rally and that the 50-stock Nifty will bounce back, around the middle of the week. Both, Nifty and Sensex started moving up from Tuesday noon. Nifty rose from around 7,560 on Tuesday morning to 7,868 on Friday morning. The weekly trend in the markets is given in the table below.
On Monday, negative cues from Asian markets, expectations of a US rate hike, weakening monsoon and a falling rupee eroded investor confidence further. The major indices in the Indian stock market lost 1%-2%.
The US Fed was expected to announce its decision to hike interest rates after a decade or so of easy monetary regime with interest rates pegged at near zero levels during its policy meet scheduled on September 16-17. High interest rates in the US were expected to lead away the foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) from emerging markets like India. It was also expected to dent business margins as access to capital from the US will become expensive.
Monday's stock market decline marked a landmark of sorts for the Narendra Modi government. The markets had come back to levels they had last seen when Modi went on to take over the reins of State. “Is the Modi exuberance over” was the question in the stock markets in India.
On Tuesday, there was a pullback rally and major indices in the Indian stock markets rose by more than 1.70%. A strengthening rupee, efforts to restart reforms and expectation of more rain, coupled with positive Asian market cues, propelled the market higher.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday met union ministers, corporate heads and economists to discuss global markets' turmoil sparked off by the Chinese economic slowdown and attendant opportunities for India.
Analysts pointed out that government's consultative efforts to understand the problems of India Inc at the time of global markets turmoil and positive Asian market cues boosted the Indian equity markets.
A global rally sponsored by reforms and stimulus measures by the Chinese government supported the Indian equity markets on Wednesday, and the major domestic indices advanced by 1%-2%.
The positive signs from the government on the reforms front especially on the passage of the goods and services tax (GST) bill, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's meeting on Tuesday with industry representatives, upcoming seventh pay commission and a strengthening rupee supported the upward movement of the markets on Wednesday.
On Thursday, negative cues from US and Asian market coupled with anxiety over the upcoming domestic factory output data caused the major indices in the Indian stock market to fall marginally. The market was moving sideways after a two-day rally. Expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will continue with its "easy monetary policy" by maintaining lower interest rates and the gains made by the rupee buoyed markets and the market rebounded sharply from the day’s lows. Still, Indian equities ended in the red at the close of trading.
On Friday, analysts pointed out that the markets were trading in line with its Asian peers and that investors remained wary of taking positions ahead of the key industrial output data. IIP data will have a major bearing on the decision of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on the next phase of rate cuts during its upcoming monetary policy meet on 29th September. Over the whole week, the major indices in the stock market made small gains.
Out of the 27 main sectors tracked by Moneylife, top five and the bottom five sectors for this week were: