Exponential rise sees the Nifty hitting the Wolfe Wave Pattern target

A bearish candle in the next couple of days would also signal that the Nifty is ripe for at least a small correction as we have seen a stupendous rise for the 7th week in a row. it would be prudent to book profits because “It’s better to be safe than sorry” in the short-term

S&P Nifty close: 5564.30 

 
Short Term: Up        Medium Term: Up            Long Term: Down

The Nifty opened flat on the very first day of the week and rallied further to rise for the 7th week in a row. Volumes during the rise were significantly higher compared to the previous week as the Nifty gained 3.39% last week. The sectoral indices which outperformed were BSE Reality (+10.18%), BSE Power (+8.54%), BSE Capital Goods (+7.90%), BSE Consumer Durables (+7.76%), BSE Bankex (+7.25%) and BSE Auto (+6.24%) while the gross underperformers were BSE Oil & Gas (-1.44%), BSE Healthcare (+0.44%) and BSE Fast Moving Consumer Durables (+0.54%).   

The weekly histogram MACD continued to move higher and is above the median line indicating strength. We have seen the Nifty rally for the 7th consecutive week (Fibonacci number) in which it has risen more than 23% resulting it becoming further overbought in the weekly charts. In the process it has completed the target as per the Wolfe Wave pattern by hitting the trendline.

 Here are some key levels to watch out for this week

  • As long as the S&P Nifty stays above 5,507 points (pivot) the bulls are in control even in the shorter time frame and the bears have to make efforts to push prices below this.
  • Support levels in declines are pegged at 5,408 and 5,252 points.
  • Resistance levels on the upside are pegged at 5,663 and 5,762 points.

Some Observations
1.    The EPA target as per the Wolfe Wave pattern has been hit, hence one has to closely watch the trendline in pink as it will offer resistance.
2.    It is also nearing the 61.8% retracement of the entire decline from 6,338-4,531 points which is pegged at 5,648 points.
3.    Despite the sharp rise the weekly averages continue to be negatively phased implying that a small decline is around the corner.

Strategy
As shown above the target as per the Wolfe Wave pattern has already been achieved and the trendline in pink offers resistance in rallies. One should therefore raise their stop loss on longs to below the low of the last trading session (5,545 as of Friday). A bearish candle in the next couple of days would also signal that the Nifty is ripe for at least a small correction as we have seen a stupendous rise for the 7th week in a row. The "gap area" between 5,428 and 5,460 has also to be watched closely as a closure of that would also indicate a weakening in the very short-term. The odds are in favour of a correction though one has to wait for a price confirmation for the same. However, it would be prudent to book profits because "It's better to be safe than sorry" in the short-term.

(Vidur Pendharkar works as a consultant technical analyst & chief strategist at www.trend4casting.com)

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Govt to provide adequate capital to PSU banks: FM

The RBI guidelines envisaged more stringent norms on capital adequacy, finance minister Pranab Mukherjee said, adding, "on our part, the government has committed to maintain the minimum 8% Tier I (equity capital) in all public sector banks which is over and above the regulatory requirement of 6%"

Gurgaon: Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee on Sunday said the government is committed to provide adequate capital to public sector banks to meet global risk norms, reports PTI.

"I have already stated that we will try to provide adequate capital ... Requirements of all banks cannot be done in one year. It will take time," Mr Mukherjee said on the sidelines of a function in Gurgaon (the second largest city in north Indian state Haryana).

"The guidelines have been approved. As per the Basel III norms, we will provide capital adequacy to all the public sector banks," he said after inaugurating corporate office of Oriental Bank of Commerce (OBC).

The draft guidelines on the Basel III capital regulations were released on 30th December for implementation from 1 January 2013 and will be completed in phases by 1 January 2019, Mr Mukherjee said.

To strengthen risk management mechanism, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has issued draft guidelines, envisaging that the equity capital of a bank should not be less than 5.5% of risk-weighted loans.

These guidelines envisaged more stringent norms on capital adequacy, Mr Mukherjee said, adding, "on our part, the government has committed to maintain the minimum 8% Tier I (equity capital) in all public sector banks which is over and above the regulatory requirement of 6%."

He said the government had provided capital to state-owned banks last fiscal, and it is taking necessary steps to keep banks adequately capitalise in 2012-13 as well.

In 2010-11, the government provided capital support to the tune of Rs20,157 crore to public sector banks. They included Bank of Baroda, Union Bank of India, Oriental Bank of Commerce, UCO Bank and Dena Bank.

This fiscal, the government will infuse over Rs7,900 crore in SBI. It is slated to capitalise more banks by March.

On the government's financial inclusion programme, the finance minister said that banking services to un-banked villages with a population of 1,000 or more will be provided within a couple of years.

"In my Budget speech of 2010-11, I made a commitment on behalf of all banks to cover 73,000 un-banked villages by March 2012 ... In another couple of years, we propose to cover all habitations having population 1,000 and more such villages," Mr Mukherjee said.

On leakage in subsidies, he said, "I lose my sleep not when I look at the volume or quantum of subsidy, but because it is not reaching to the poor and needy and targeted group."

He added that banks can play a very major role through inclusive programmes like Swabhimaan, and by extending facilities to the large number of rural population.

If these subsidies are provided through the banking network, institutional financial networks, the leakage will be reduced substantially, he said.

The finance minister inaugurated two ultra small branches in Badarpur and Marora in Haryana as per the recent guidelines of ministry of finance where banks have been advised to open such branches with minimum staff and infrastructure costs.

Business correspondents, appointed by OBC, will undertake all cash transactions and other routine work through the week.

However, a bank official will visit the branch at least once in a week along with a laptop with proper connectivity.

This will help the bank to widen its reach for financial inclusion in remote areas.

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Govt to issue notice to RIL on fall in gas output from KG-D6

The oil ministry and its technical arm-the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH)-blame the fall in output from KG-D6 fields to 34.5 mmscmd instead of 70.39 mmscmd planned for now, and 80 mmscmd by April, due to RIL drilling fewer wells than it had committed

Rajahmundry: Oil minister S Jaipal Reddy on Sunday said the government will issue notice to Reliance Industries (RIL) on the fall in gas output from its D-6 fields in KG basin, reports PTI.

"From KG D-6, 70 million metric standard cubic metres per day (mmscmd) of gas should come. In this year it fell to 37 mmscmd. In this regard, we are going to issue notice (to Reliance)," Mr Reddy told reports during his maiden visit to KG basin.

The oil ministry and its technical arm-the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH)-blame the fall in output from KG-D6 fields to 34.5 mmscmd instead of 70.39 mmscmd planned for now, and 80 mmscmd by April, due to RIL drilling fewer wells than it had committed.

The ministry is consulting legal experts on sending the notice to RIL and will go through the normal legal process, Mr Reddy had said last week.

DGH wants $1.235 billion, out of the $5.7 billion expenditure already made in KG-D6, to be disallowed as RIL has drilled and completed only 18 wells as against the agreed upon 31 wells in the block, resulting in lower gas output.

Anticipating such a move, RIL had on 24th November slapped an arbitration notice saying the Production Sharing Contract allows 100% of the expenses to be recovered and has no provision to restrict cost recovery in proportion to output.

RIL says it has not drilled the committed number of wells as the reservoir has not behaved as predicted and output dipped due to a fall in pressure and water and sand ingress in wells.

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COMMENTS

VIJAY DHANWADE

5 years ago

Reliance can seek permission of Indian Government to seek support of Russia to find out reasons on fall in gas output from KG-D6, like pack-up, flow etc.

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