Nifty may go down to 4,785, if the downtrend continues
Confirming to various analysts’ projections of a lower growth in the current fiscal, the government on Friday asserted that GDP growth in 2011-12 would be 7.5%. Concerns about the slowdown and the continuing debt problems in Europe led the market 4% lower in the holiday-shortened week.
The government’s flip-flop over FDI in multi-brand retail led the market down on Monday. Opening after a day’s break, the market closed with minor gains on Wednesday as lifting of the nine-day logjam in Parliament boosted investor sentiment. Despite the weekly inflation coming in at a 39-month low, the benchmarks settled with deep cuts on Thursday as investors were concerned about the stability of the government at the Centre. The spectre of lower growth in the current fiscal and weak global cues pulled the market down on Friday.
The Sensex finished the week 633 points lower at 16,213 and the Nifty settled at 4,867, down 183 points. If the Nifty goes below 4,840, we may see it reaching the level of 4,785. However, if Nifty manages to keep itself above 4,920, we may see some change in the trend.
While the BSE IT index settled flat, all others ended in the negative led by BSE Capital Goods and BSE Realty (down 5%) each).
Wipro (up 2%) was the lone gainer in the 30-share Sensex. The top losers were Bharti Airtel (down 8%), Sterlite Industries, ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries (down 7% each) and BHEL (down 6%).
The major gainers on the Nifty were Wipro (up 3%), Punjab National Bank and Infosys (up 1% each). The key losers were Sesa Goa, Bharti Airtel (down 8% each), Sterlite Ind, ICICI Bank and Reliance Industries (down 7% each).
Food inflation fell sharply to 6.60% for the week ended 26th November, down from 8% in the previous week ended 19th November. Food inflation has shown a declining trend over the last seven weeks, giving some relief to policymakers that prices would reach more comfortable levels towards the year-end.
The government, in its Mid-Year Analysis 2011-12, lowered the gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for the current fiscal to 7.5% from 9%, but exuded confidence of a revival in the next year. The analysis further said that the overall inflation is likely to decline from this month and moderate to 7% by March-end.
Growth in India’s exports plummeted to 4.2% year-on-year as the shipments aggregated $22.3 billion in November in the wake of difficult global situation, while imports were up 29.1% to $35.9 billion. Since slowdown in growth has set in because of factors like Eurozone crisis, commerce secretary Rahul Khullar on Friday said that the total exports for the current fiscal would be in the range of $280 billion, down from the earlier projection of $300 billion.
The nine-day deadlock in Parliament over the government’s decision to allow foreign direct investment (FDI) in multi-brand retail ended on Wednesday after an all-party meeting passed a resolution to suspend the move till consensus is reached. Last month the Cabinet had approved allowing 51% FDI in multi-brand retail as well as 100% FDI in single-brand retail.
In international news, Europe secured an historic agreement to draft a new treaty for greater economic integration in the Eurozone on Friday. However, Britain refused to join the other 26 countries in a fiscal union. Under the new treaty plan, the leaders agreed to implement a tougher budget discipline regime with automatic sanctions for deficit defaulters in the single currency area.
Global markets will now turn their focus on the US, where the Federal Reserve is slated to meet on Tuesday. While no major decision is expected, key economic indicators would be keenly watched.
The sharp decline which started towards the end of the week is likely to culminate around the 14th-15th December after which another bounce could take place. However, the strength of this bounce will depend upon how deep we go in the current decline
S&P Nifty close: 4866.70
Short Term: Down Medium Term: Down Long Term: Down
The Nifty opened flat this week and recovered marginally thereafter. However, after failing to hold on to the on to the gains the index slipped sharply in the last two days of trade to close 184 points (-3.63%) in the red.
The weekly histogram MACD remains below the median line confirming that the bears are in control. The bulls staged a smart comeback but the volumes during the rise were poor, raising doubts as to its sustainability. This resulted in last week’s decline, which too has been on low volumes, implying that we might move sideways in the next couple of weeks.
Here are some key levels to watch out for this week.
The bulls have staged a smart comeback but they have to ensure that they do not lose too much ground in the weeks ahead to keep their hopes alive.
1. Resistance in rallies is pegged at 5,109 points (almost hit) and 5,263 points (61.8% and 78.6% retracement levels of the fall from 5,399-4,639 points.
2. The volumes in last week’s decline have been poor implying that there is a lack of strength in the fall.
3. The bounce till 1st to 5th December materialized as expected and one saw a sharp correction in the last couple of days.
4. The Nifty has closed the “upside gap” area in the last decline raising doubts as regards to the sustainability of the corrective rise from 4,639 points.
One saw a sharp decline during the last couple of days of the week. A culmination of this is likely during the course of this week around the 14th to 15th December from where we could see another bounce taking place. However, the strength of this bounce will depend upon how deep we go in the current decline. It will be a swinging market providing opportunities to the bulls as well as the bears depending upon who is more adept and nimble footed. Look for a small buy opportunity around the above mentioned time frame.
(Vidur Pendharkar works as a consultant technical analyst & chief strategist, www.trend4casting.com)
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