Credit Suisse sees Sensex at 13,200; rupee at 55 by June

“We remain bearish on the overall market, with downside risks to both multiples as well as earnings. The Sensex is likely to fall in the range between 13,200 and 14,400 and the rupee may touch Rs54-Rs55 by June 2012,” Credit Suisse India equity strategy head Neelkanth Mishra told reporters

Mumbai: The Sensex is likely to rule between 13,200 and 14,400 points and the rupee may touch Rs54-Rs55 by June next, reports PTI quoting a Credit Suisse India report.

“We remain bearish on the overall market, with downside risks to both multiples as well as earnings. The Sensex is likely to fall in the range between 13,200 and 14,400 points and the rupee may touch Rs54-Rs55 by June 2012,” Credit Suisse India equity strategy head Neelkanth Mishra told reporters here.

The market is not trading at its face value and possibility of downtrend is most likely, he said while releasing the Credit Suisse India 2012 Outlook report here.

The trend is already clear; he said and pointed out that “Q2 was the first quarter in two years to see a year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in profits for companies in the Nifty. More worrying is that this happened despite a 20% annual sales growth, thus indicating continuing margin depletion, which is already at a three-year low.

“We fear that a potential slowdown could impact sales and could put further pressure on operating profit growth due to negative operating leverage,” the report said.

The rupee has been one of the weakest currencies globally in 2011 and the weakest in Asia, falling 17% since August alone. Credit Suisse believes the rupee would continue to be weaker.

Mr Mishra pointed out that the rupee is likely to continue to weaken over the next three-to-six months, putting more pressure on inflation, delaying rate cuts and hurting foreign- investor returns.

“We expect the rupee to touch Rs 54-Rs55 by June next, but it is unlikely to touch Rs60,” Mr Mishra said, adding only debt flows can potentially support the rupee.

However, the stress on European banks and depletion of risk appetite could keep the dollar access for domestic corporates restricted. As a result, estimates and prospects for companies that have dollar revenues but rupee costs have not been updated so far, IT services and pharma exporters in particular, the report said

“We expect the domestic IT services sector to particularly get a second headwind with a structural downward revision in rupee estimates,” it said.

In a sustained high interest rate and risk-averse environment, the agency believes rate sensitive sectors are likely to remain under pressure. Further, high interest rates and slowing growth will continue to pressure asset quality at banks.

On the high government borrowing, the report said it is also likely to put pressure on credit growth.

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Delhi court allows Swamy to depose as witness in 2G case

The court told Mr Swamy that the list of witnesses, which he had filed with his application, for summoning some senior CBI officials and other public servants to press his case would be allowed only after he could explain the relevance of their testimony

New Delhi: A Delhi court today allowed Janata Party chief Subramanian Swamy to depose as a witness and lead further evidence in support of his private complaint against Union home minister P Chidambaram in the second generation (2G) spectrum case, reports PTI.

“Complainant Dr Subramanian Swamy is permitted to recall himself as complainant witness one for leading further evidence,” special CBI judge OP Saini said.

The court told Mr Swamy that the list of witnesses, which he had filed with his application, for summoning some senior Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) officials and other public servants to press his case would be allowed only after he could explain the relevance of their testimony.

“Other witnesses as mentioned in the list of witnesses filed with the application shall be allowed to be summoned only after relevance of their testimony is explained by the complainant (Mr Swamy),” the court said.

The judge said Mr Swamy could lead evidence in support of his complaint as he has referred to the role of other conspirators in it.

“In view of the facts that complainant was not aware of the identity of additional proposed accused (s) at the time of filing of complaint, but has now come to know about it, he is not prevented in law from leading evidence on this point, more so, when he has referred to the role of other conspirators in his complaint,” the judge said.

The court directed Mr Swamy to appear in the witness box on 17th December to lead further evidence in support of his complaint against Mr Chidambaram.

The court had on 3rd December reserved its order on Mr Swamy’s plea seeking permission to examine himself afresh, senior CBI officials and others to prove that Mr Chidambaram had taken a joint decision with former telecom minister A Raja regarding fixing the price for 2G spectrum.

He had claimed that Mr Chidambaram, as the then finance minister, had permitted Swan Telecom and Unitech, who had secured the licences, to sell their shares to foreign companies.

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