Lower production and robust demand is expected to take red metal prices up further over the next couple of years
Copper prices on Wednesday crossed a two-and-a half-year high on the global market on a weakening dollar and increased demand from China.
According to an analyst at a commodity exchange, copper is climbing up because Chinese production and consumption is booming. "Warehouse stocks at the London Metal Exchange (LME) are going down, hence the chances of copper prices going up (further) is high," he said.
Copper prices were quoted at $3.78 per pound at the LME, a big increase of 34.8% from a year ago. Industry sources believe that "copper is on an upward trend and may reach levels of $10,000 a tonne in the next couple of years before dropping back." The red metal is trading at around $8,265 per tonne.
Sharekhan Ltd, the stock trading company of the SSKI Group, said in a research note, "Copper has given a fresh breakout. It has surpassed the high of $3.68, kicking off a new leg on the upside. Long-term picture shows that copper is rising in a channelised manner. The previous rally that originated near the lower end of $1.25 completed forming an expanding ending diagonal. The entire rally has been retraced up to the 38.2% mark, from where the third leg on the upside has started."
China is the third largest producer of copper and the largest consumer of the red metal which is mainly used in construction and automobiles. Weakness in global copper mining and a rising demand for the commodity in China has caused the demand-supply gap to widen, creating a constructive platform for copper prices.
The depreciation of the US dollar has also made it easier to purchase base metals like copper, contributing to the hike in prices. The dollar is trading at Rs44.66, significantly weaker from the Rs47.53 at this time last year. Further quantitative easing by the US Fed is expected to increase the inflow of the dollar on a global level.
Last year, copper prices were depressed due to slow growth on account of the global recession. Things have changed since. With curtailed supply and robust demand, it seems the upward movement will continue, which makes it a good time to invest in the metal.
As the controversy surrounding SKS Microfinance intensifies, Kotak Institutional Equities Research has written a very positive note on the stock with an ‘Add’ rating. Citi, Centrum, and CSFB are also positive on the stock. Internet forums are divided on the issue while mutual funds are tight-lipped
Kotak Institutional Equities Research has a positive view on the SKS Microfinance stock. Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB) and Citi, too, have come out with positive notes on the stock, that too after the controversy about the sacking of SKS’s CEO Suresh Gurumani broke out last week. Internet forums are divided on whether the sacking of the CEO will necessarily lead to a further fall in share prices and not everybody believes there are skeletons in the SKS closet. However, the forums seem to agree that the political fallout of the issue (on the high interest rates charged to farmers and people of the low-income group) could be the biggest threat to the stock.
A brief background...
SKS Microfinance, which claims to be India’s biggest microfinance institution, made its debut on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) in August. Its founder and CEO, Vikram Akula, claimed that the initial public offering (IPO) was done to raise more funds so that SKS could reach out to a larger number of poor people. This logic has been questioned time and again—how could SKS juggle the dichotomy of being a listed company, that is, maximising profits for its shareholders, and yet serve the poor effectively? Several comments about its overhyped IPO also appeared in the press. But hell broke loose only in early October when SKS abruptly terminated the services of its managing director and CEO, Suresh Gurumani, without giving any specific reason. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), reacting uncharacteristically fast, asked the board to justify its action.
SKS Branch Network: Highest concentration in AP
(Source: Citigroup Global Markets report dated 5th October citing company reports)
Moneylife has been actively writing about SKS Microfinance for a long time now.
The earliest article in July 2010 questioned the IPO premium and raised other issues such as the commitment of the top management, high remuneration paid to top executives, geographical concentration of business and the mismatch in its assets and liabilities. (See: http://www.moneylife.in/article/81/7674.html).
Since the controversy, Moneylife has also written several articles about this issue:
What brokerages say
Despite the possibility of a political backlash and chances of the controversy snowballing, brokerages have staunchly endorsed the stock.
Kotak Research wrote in a note today, “We believe SKS Microfinance is well-positioned to capture the latent demand in microfinance. A meticulously-planned and scalable business platform, proven track record of maintaining low NPLs and proactive management will likely drive 60% loan book CAGR between FY2010 and FY2013E. We initiate coverage with an Add rating and target price of Rs1,400.”
Credit Suisse First Boston brought out a post-conference call note on the stock on 5th October which said that growth momentum continues to be strong and management has guided for 80% FY11 net profit growth (targeting 77% y-o-y growth in disbursements) and that it does not see any of the potential regulatory changes as a threat to its business model/profitability. CSFB said that it is expecting 1H11 profits of Rs1.5 billion, a 165% y-o-y growth, and that “though the sudden management change is likely to remain as an overhang in the near term, we believe the strong earnings shall act as a support for the stock. With a Tier-I of 42%, SKS is well placed for strong loan growth for multiple years and with high ROAs (6.5%-7%) we maintain Outperform (target price of Rs1,575).”
Centrum, in an 11th October report, provocatively titled "Greed is Good!", says microfinance Institutions are in a sweet spot and that SKS with its 'excellent scalable' business model is right there to lap up the opportunity. Citi, too, expects the stock to rise above Rs1,400.
SKS's split of loans by state
(Source: Citigroup Global Markets report dated 5th October citing company reports)
What internet forums say
Internet forums are divided as usual. Some members are calling Akula a crook, while others believe that nothing will come of the whole thing. The optimists point at the company’s share price which has not really fallen off the cliff since the controversy broke out. It is still above its debut price.
They also point to the low NPA levels in the company, its high 'reach', and the fact that no financial irregularities have been found so far.
Many expect high political drama over the issue. There have been suicide deaths related to microfinance loan repayments in Andhra Pradesh and today the state government approved a special ordinance to deal with the worsening situation. It has been reported that Spandana Spoorthy, the second-largest Indian microfinance company in terms of assets, may be delaying its IPO.
The mutual fund industry is quite tight-lipped about the whole issue. Birla Mutual Fund, Kotak, and UTI have holdings in SKS.
According to the BSE, Indian promoters hold 11.6% of SKS, foreign promoters 25.5%, foreign institutional investors 17% and domestic institutions 6% as of September. Several prominent foreign and Indian funds hold more than 1% in the company. Some of the names are:
(This article is based on secondary research. The report is for information only. None of the stock information, data and company information presented herein constitutes a recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities. Investors must do their own research and due diligence before acting on any security. Some of the opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and may not necessarily represent those of Moneylife).
New Delhi: Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) today said its board of directors has approved the merger of Godrej Household Products Limited (GHPL) with itself, reports PTI.
The company said the merger subsequent to GCPL's acquisition of 51% stake in Godrej Sara Lee (GSLL) from erstwhile partner Sara Lee Corp, will be applicable with retrospective effective from 1 April 2010.
After the acquisition, GSLL was renamed as Godrej Household Products Limited (GHPL).
"The merger of GHPL with GCPL is an important milestone in our aspiration towards becoming a leading emerging markets FMCG company," GCPL chairman Adi Godrej said in a statement.
The company said a dedicated programme office has been set up as part of the integration process.
"Over 100 of our team members are working very hard in cross functional teams to cross pollinate ideas, to share learnings and to chart the path of a bigger and better GCPL.
This intensive effort has been code-named Project Neo," GCPL managing director A Mahendran said.
After the integration, GCPL will now sell personal care and household insecticide brands including GoodKnight, Cinthol, Godrej No 1, Expert, Hit, Jet, Fairglow, Ezee, Protekt and Snuggy, among others.
"The merger will provide us with significant strategic and operational benefits. Both GCPL and GHPL have delivered outstanding performance and we believe that the merger provides us with a scale platform to accelerate our growth and profit trajectory," Mr Godrej said.
According to analysts, the integration of the two firms will help in bringing more synergies in terms of its distribution and marketing.
"There has been synergy already between the two firms, it will be higher now whether in their distribution channel or marketing," an analyst with Angel Broking said.
"They will have a bigger basket of products to offer.
Besides, there might be certain things, which were overlapping. It will help in overcoming that and help in cost saving," he added.