Bonds, Currencies & Commodities
Copper prices expected to gravitate towards $6,000 per tonne, says Credit Suisse

Copper prices, unlike its peers, have not grabbed much attention even though its price crash has been equally dramatic. Credit Suisse expects that supply will be the key differentiator as prices continue its downfall

Commodity prices have been in a correction mode in the past few weeks, with gold and crude oil already in a downward movement. But one metal that has not caught the eyes of investors is copper. The stockpile of copper recently breached a 10-year high on the London Metals Exchange (LME); the price has been trending down, below $7000 per tonne. The report sounds an even more cautious tone when it states: “Risks are also skewed towards the possibility of a deeper correction or undershoot, borne out by combined effects of structurally moderated demand growth and a long overdue delivery of abundant supply expansions for the first time in several years.”
 

Credit Suisse expects copper prices to trade towards $6,000 per tonne. Their report titled ‘Copper: Another One Bites the Dust’ states: “However, this time we feel that the move lower is likely to be structural in nature. In essence, after trading closer to the top of the $6,000 to $9,000 range in place since 2006, we now expect prices to gravitate towards the bottom end of that band.”
 

The reason for the pessimistic forecast is two-fold; firstly, supply has increased which resulted in record stockpiles. Secondly, a ‘structural downshift’ from China has resulted in weak demand. The confluence of the two has resulted in a crash in copper prices. Credit Suisse mentions that China demand has weakened so much that its growth rate is likely to settle at around single digits range of 7%-8%.

Additionally, the global investment bank mentions that any upward movement in price, perhaps due to European recovery, would be temporary and a good opportunity for short-term traders. The report states: “European road to recovery will be long and bumpy, is likely to see many industrial commodity prices move to a lower equilibrium, with any near-term bounce providing a new selling opportunity.”
 

More important than demand is the question of supply that has led to record stockpiles. The report states: “Copper’s price fortunes hinge more importantly on prospects for supply growth, rather than demand”. Steady expansion and investments in efficiency meant that supply is more ready than ever, with fewer levels of mine disruptions. The report states: “If, as seems quite plausible, miners suffer a lower level of disruptions and delays than in recent years, and expansion targets are more closely met, supply surpluses will inevitably rise.” Chile is one of the world’s largest producers of copper, yet the prevailing sentiment there is bearish as well.

Copper is an important commodity for several reasons. Firstly, it is a key material for electrifying homes, so it can be used as a barometer for gauging economic performance. Second, much of the world’s copper supply is consumed by China. Any small blip on the demand side from China is bound to affect copper. While the price has fallen to this level several times in the past couple of years, on each occasion the dip proved relatively temporary. However, this time around, we feel that the move lower is likely to be structural in nature, the report said.

User

Idea Cellular Q4 net up 29% at Rs308.18 crore

For the year ended 31st March, net profit of the company rose by 39.82% at Rs1,010.93 crore as compared to Rs722.99 crore in the previous fiscal

Mobile operator Idea Cellular Thursday reported jump of nearly 29% in its consolidated net profit at Rs308.18 crore for the fourth quarter ended 31st March, driven by growth in voice minutes and high data usage.

 

The company's net profit stood at Rs238.98 crore net profit in the same period last fiscal.

 

Total revenues for the company during the January-March 2013 quarter rose by 12.88% at Rs6,061.38 crore from Rs5,369.69 crore in the corresponding period last fiscal.

 

For the year ended 31st March, net profit of the company rose by 39.82% at Rs1,010.93 crore as compared to Rs722.99 crore in the last year.

 

“The high revenue growth is led by sharp expansion of voice minutes at 8.5% to 143.4 billion, on sequential quarterly basis, indicating consumer demand for mobile telephony is robust,” the company said in a statement.

 

Idea’s net profit from international long distance grew to Rs8.82 crore, from Rs5.86 crore.

 

“The Q4, FY13 has the highest data adoption by Idea customers' with 4.5 million sequential quarter addition, as the EoP base of data users grew to 26.2 million, now contributing 6.6% to service revenue,” the statement said.

 

The active 3G subscriber base for the company stands at 5.1 million and average revenue per user for data stands at Rs55, it added.

 

“Idea continues to strengthen its competitive standing by investing in long term value creators, launched 2,432 GSM sites and 1,595 3G sites, expanded optical fibre network to 74,000 km and strengthened its presence in NLD, ILD, ISP, data services and smartphone device business,” the statement said.

 

It added Idea is the biggest net gainer nationally in the Mobile Number Portability programme.

User

Finally, MCA sets up special task force under SFIO to probe MLM menace

After keeping mum for all these years the MCA has finally decided to hand over the probe of chit-fund, MLM, Ponzi and pyramid schemes to a special task force under the SFIO

After the collapse of Saradha group, the ministry of corporate affairs (MCA) in a face saving measure has decided to hand over probe of such chit-fund, MLM, Ponzi and pyramid scheme operators to Serious Fraud Investigations Office (SFIO).

 

“…in view of the larger public interest involved in these cases, and concerns regarding misuse/ laundering by such companies of the ill-gotten wealth, and the possibility that the promoters of these companies may strip these companies, it has been decided by the MCA to set up a Special Task Force in the SFIO to investigate the affairs of such companies. Accordingly, all investigations into such companies are being entrusted to SFIO with immediate effect,” the ministry said in a release.

 

The ministry said the probe has been ordered in view of a larger public interest involved in the issues, although the state governments are the appropriate authorities for regulation of such chit fund companies and schemes under the Chit Fund Act, 1982.

 

Moneylife has been continuously writing about the inaction by government and regulators regarding MLM companies, money circulation schemes, pyramid-marketing schemes and other similar companies that swindle the unwary public by offering them misleading inducements and depriving them of their hard-earned savings.

 

Here are some of the important stories written and representations made by Moneylife over the years…

 

Moneylife Foundation’s representation to PM, FM and RBI on MLM schemes

In May 2011, following the exposé by Moneylife on Speak Asia Online Pte Ltd and its MLM scheme, Moneylife Foundation sent a representation to prime minister Dr Manmohan Singh, (the then) finance minister Pranab Mukherjee, finance secretary Sushama Nath and Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor D Subbarao urging them to ban all MLM companies and their schemes in the country, or to bring all MLM companies under the regulation of either the RBI or the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), to stop them ensnaring gullible people.

 

West Bengal’s ‘chit fund’ mess and inaction of MCA

The massive money, which is raised surely shows somewhere on the balance sheet of the company, filed regularly with the MCA. The primary recipient of the information about these companies is the MCA, and surprisingly the MCA is the least proactive in the entire process of bringing these perpetrators to regulatory focus, sooner before tonnes of money vanish.

 

Chain Game

Dubious pyramid schemes or money-circulation schemes are looting Indians across economic strata, finds Sucheta Dalal. This will continue since Central and state governments seem unconcerned.

 

Pyramid schemes: Daylight robbery

Pyramid marketing companies are looting the public easily, while the government watches. Many countries have banned them outright.

 

Ponzi Scheme: Is RBI Passing the Buck?

A strange deposit scheme that is proliferating in the states of Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka and Maharashtra has already collected almost Rs1,000 crore and is expanding virtually unchecked. The scam has elements of money-laundering and possibly the use of fake and forged currency as well; however, the banking regulator would like to pass off the investigation to the respective state governments for investigation under the antiquated Prize Chits and Money Circulation Schemes (Banning) Act.

 

Coin Game

An international network marketing scheme hawking expensive limited edition coins is attracting a huge following. Sucheta Dalal examines this strange quest.

 

Ponzi schemes: Free for all

Moneylife readers know how MLM schemes ensnare lakhs of people by promising extraordinary returns. We learn from the ministry of consumer affairs that the government is now waking up to the need for better regulation of MLMs and ponzis. At the same time, the powerful Direct Selling Association of the US is lobbying hard for an amendment.

 

‘Beware of deception by pyramid schemes, MLMs trying to lure people with promise of high returns’

Pyramids are pure fraud. Their business is unsustainable-they promise payment for goods or services of dubious value. The hallmark of these schemes is the promise of sky-high returns in a short period of time, for doing nothing other than simply handing over your money to them, and getting others to do the same.

 

Ponzi schemes: The fraudulent art of chain game

Even as India bans pyramid schemes under a statute called the Prize Chits and Money Circulation Schemes (Banning) Act, 1978, the country continues to be a happy hunting ground for pyramids because our legislation is deliberately unworkable.

 

Dubious Ponzi & MLM Schemes

Investors losing money, or falling for dubious Ponzi schemes, is not a recent phenomenon; this has been happening for decades and it is not restricted only to India. Why is it that people repeatedly fall prey to such schemes in spite of being aware of the frauds perpetrated by conmen under different guises?

 

Set up inter-departmental group to curb MLMs

EAS Sarma, former power and finance secretary, said the ministry of finance, Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), and the investigating agencies should collectively tackle this problem without any delay, as every day of procrastination will only result in thousands of hapless families cheated by the promoters of these schemes.

 

How MLMs wave an annulled letter to claim legitimacy of their operations and con people

Spokespersons and dealers of multi-level marketing (MLM) schemes or network marketing schemes respond to questions about their legitimacy by brandishing a 2003 letter issued by the then secretary, ministry of corporate affairs (MCA). What they omit to mention is that the letter was subsequently annulled following complaints about its misuse. This means, the letter used by these scamsters is no more valid.

 

Pyramid and MLM schemes are scourge on people

While there are existing laws such as Indian Penal Code (IPC), the Prize Chits and Money Circulation Schemes (Banning) Act, 1978 (PCMCS Act) and others under which concerned agencies could prosecute the culprits, there is no effective mechanism in place to ensure a coordinated approach to identify the fraudulent operators in advance and book them well before they destroy the livelihoods of thousands of households and launder the ill-gotten funds to unknown destinations.

 

MLMs now want to ‘invest’ money in India, really?

A set of powerful MLMs, which are part of an exclusive closed club, called the Indian Direct Selling Association or IDSA (on the lines of the Direct Selling Association of the US) has been lobbying hard to make a distinction between their operations and those of others, who they call, fly-by-night operators such as SpeakAsia and Ad Magnet.

 

QNet, the MLM company, has no answers to Moneylife’s simple questions

QNet, the controversial Hong Kong-based multi-level marketing (MLM) operator with multiple names (GoldQuest, QuestNet, QNet, QI Ltd and QI group are the better known names) refused to answer simple questions like how much money their independent representative (IR) earns on an average every month and why their products are priced so highly. Instead, it sent us a threatening and defamatory mail that raises more questions as to their real motive.

 

2011: A year dedicated to MLM and Ponzi scheme frauds

If 2010 was the year of great Indian scams, 2011 was rather of ponzi and multi-level marketing (MLM) frauds. SpeakAsia managed to top the chart, but soon many others joined the bandwagon, duping gullible investors for several thousand crores.

 

How to avoid 'get-rich-quick' schemes and scams

Nothing comes free in this world, especially money. The universal truth is you need to earn your money by hard labour all the time and there are no shortcuts to double it in the shortest span of time. Therefore, even if your near and dear ones tell you he/she will double, triple, quadruple your money within a few days/months, politely reply to them that it is not possible and what they are advocating is a pure 'get-rich-quick' type of scam.

 

Herbalife is a pyramid scheme worth zero dollars: Bill Ackman

Herbalife, a global MLM scheme also prevalent in India, is believed to be worthless according to hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, who made a detailed presentation on why consumers should avoid buying the company’s products and stay away from the MLM.

User

COMMENTS

Dipakkumar J Shah

4 years ago

MCA search for MLM and all Chit Fund now. But fails to inquire in to a case where illegal provisions of profit entry in books of account , mere book entry of profit and paid dividend out of this profit. For last 18 years have been passed but no action in any part on any Directors ?? In tax Audit Report the same auditor as Tax Auditor excluded the same mere book entry of profit . This document is on record of Regional Director, M C A , Registrar of Companies , Official Liquidator!!! What kind of action they may take is very apparent and clear from all scams!! It is very well known to all How MCA department is working for compliance ? How the accounts are scrutinized by R O C ?
Shah D J

CA PRADEEP AGARWAL

4 years ago

Congress is an artist in deferring problems and minting money out of the same.

CA PRADEEP AGARWAL

4 years ago

Will enquiry be partialor a method to defer a problem.

CA PRADEEP AGARWAL

4 years ago

MR VKJ, Mr Virendra Jain, Mr Vinay Joshi etc. this is forum not to slug out but give your independent
opinion on topics being discussed.

V K JAIN

4 years ago

Sorry. My mail is addressed to Mr. Vinay Joshi and erroneously addressed to Mr.Pai.Inconvenience is regretted.

Virendra Jain

V K JAIN

4 years ago

Mr.Pai , it appears you are confused regarding Midas Touch Investors Association, its voluntary status and working and my association with it. It is a non-profit organisation, having its R.O. at Kanpur since inception, of which I am one of the founder and currently President also. My full name is Virendra Kumar Jain. The photograph you are referring to is of “Investor Helpline” office at New Delhi which was closed on completion of the project someimes during 2011. I fail to understand import of your statements in this regard.
I stand by my comments posted earlier regarding SFIO and do not wish to debate with you regarding their track-record or accountability/conduct of any of the ministries. Midas Touch takes up issues which it considers important and has the resources to do it. The rest does not relate to us. Frankly, i find such mails and their content a waste of time and big deterrent in participation in discussions.

Virendra Jain .

REPLY

Vinay Joshi

In Reply to V K JAIN 4 years ago

Dear Mr. Virendra Kumar Jain,

Noted.Thanx.

Regards,

CA PRADEEP AGARWAL

4 years ago

Actually the Govt. and its institutions have lost all confidence the public had in them. So they have to find out a way to bridge the gap.

V K JAIN

4 years ago

SFIO is merely an investigative department which can recommend action since it has no powers to take action on its own.
For expeditious action, post investigation by SFIO, it may be desirable to put a detailed action plan well in advance so that precious months/years are not wasted after the SFIO submits its report to the ministry/appropriate authorities.

Virendra Jain

REPLY

Vinay Joshi

In Reply to V K JAIN 4 years ago

Virendra K Jain.

I was closely associated with Mr.T. A Pai, if you know who he was & what he stood for.

You write as VKJ, Prez, the site shows different VJ with his photograph on PC, of Delhi, you were empanelled in Arnab's telecast as from Mumbai Prez.

Kindly clarify the same & as well answer why you've not answered my earlier posts to you.If not answered it amounts to no answers. No must! you can trash it including this.

The fundamental aspect you miss is that SFIO is under which ministry? What teeth can it have? Which ministry can initiate action under financial scam?

You're investors association Prez, [no idea of Delhi or Bombay - Midas!] CAN YOU NAME ONE SINGLE SFIO case who has got culprits to book? Even if, monies evaporated apart from foot soldiers no one hanged.

Center has no role to play, it's the states subject, with sufficient legal provisions to monitor the schemes.

When the state politicians with their clout bless the swindlers why you can't highlight it? You only come to know when swindled & then say 'the swindlers had political backing'!? What you & the administration was doing?

You have never ever raised your voice about 'credit societies'duping in Maharashtra. Have you? Have you got relief for them?

With more than 20/30kCR at stake, the WB proposed laws [Bill to be introduced on 30th]will have positive impact, if model a law other states should also immdly enact the same. The 2009 aborted bill is now retrieved. The new provisions will encompass MCA aspects also. Further it will be with retrospective effect.

Now the center can't be just a spectator.

On Friday, the finance ministry in its reply stated that 27 co's were probed from the real estate sector across the country.SEBI found nine entities not involved in CIS, 2 are probed, other being probed by different agencies. It has not stated the amount lost & people duped in numbers!

Await your reply if any?

Regards,

CA PRADEEP AGARWAL

In Reply to V K JAIN 4 years ago

ACTUALLY IF YOU SEE IT THE OTHER WAY, THE GOVT. WANTS TO LINGER IT FOR BARGAINING PURPOSES.

CA PRADEEP AGARWAL

4 years ago

ek chor ne doosre chor ko baton pakadaya, PUBLIC ACTUALLY HAVE LOST ALL CONFIDENCE IN THESE SO CALLED PROTECTORS, were they blind when these things were happening/going on-(What about AP in which MR NARAYAN MURTHY is involved) they have got so called local intelligence unit, what were they doing.

Investor

4 years ago

Fraudulent companies/ so called I'll and sick business group like rosevally,shardha and sahara, trying their best not to get new company bill passed in parliament by pocketing members of standing committee.

Not only this now shifted operations to multi state cooperative society to continue to loot people and promote money laundering together.

Proposed ammendment in multistage cooperative society act is also isn't to cold storage by standing committe on agriculture headed by Acharya,all visible how all are participating to allow loot in the country.

Did registrar multi state cooperatives had taken any survey or study or investigation on the model on which multistage cooperative society are registered recently in last three years and their financial results are with registrar office.

By making member of multi state cooperative society money laundering and loot should not be allowed.

Money life may take lead to expose such societies to stop loot and money laundering.

REPLY

CA PRADEEP AGARWAL

In Reply to Investor 4 years ago

I DO AGREE MLF should certainly come forward, desh mein bahut loot maari ho chuki, now it should stop.

Sandeep Patel

4 years ago

This is super duper news !!! Hopefully now some action will be taken against Qnet representatives ... and the company as well ... finally some light at the end of the tunnel hopefully !!!

Dipakkumar J Shah

4 years ago

There is one case , a case of dividend paid out of capital, illegal payment of capital, by mere book entry of profit, not leaglly received from any body, contravening the provisions of the Companies Act reported in 1994/1998. On record they have all the information . In action for all these years. R O C and other offices defending , hid many facts. What is the Law abiding. Ordinary persons are prosecuted for nothing!!!

CA PRADEEP AGARWAL

4 years ago

What about pygmy schemes in AP, where farmer's committed suicide

We are listening!

Solve the equation and enter in the Captcha field.
  Loading...
Close

To continue


Please
Sign Up or Sign In
with

Email
Close

To continue


Please
Sign Up or Sign In
with

Email

BUY NOW

The Scam
24 Year Of The Scam: The Perennial Bestseller, reads like a Thriller!
Moneylife Magazine
Fiercely independent and pro-consumer information on personal finance
Stockletters in 3 Flavours
Outstanding research that beats mutual funds year after year
MAS: Complete Online Financial Advisory
(Includes Moneylife Magazine and Lion Stockletter)