The deal is positive for both RCom and RIL. RCom can utilize and monetize its extensive network reach. And importantly, it can deliver its balance sheet further (total debt: $7 billion), says Nomura Equity Research
Reliance Communications (RCom) and Reliance Industries (RIL) announced a tower-sharing deal for an “aggregate value” of over $2 billion for 45,000 towers over the lifetime of the agreement, which could be over 10-15 years, according to a report by Nomura Equity Research.
The exact details aren’t available, but according to Nomura this value is predominately for annual leasing revenues, and not the pass-through. Hence, the bottomline impact could be larger than the topline.
Assuming per-tower build cost of $60,000-$70,000 in India, this deal implies RCom is recovering more than 50% of the total build cost of 45,000 towers (ignoring the impact of time value), the brokerage points out.
For RCom, the interest expense in FY13 was Rs25 billion, or $450 million. If RCom collects leasing revenues on all its towers, it should be able to collect around $200mn per annum, as per Nomura’s estimate (45,000 towers @ $600/month rent @ 60% margin, although rentals could arguably be substantially lower than market rates).
According to Nomura, the deal is positive for both RCom and RIL. It further states that RCom can utilize and monetize its extensive network reach (both recently entered into an inter-city fibre sharing deal too). And importantly, it can deliver its balance sheet further (total debt: $7 billion). RIL can also accelerate its wireless/4G rollout.
On RCom, the stock has re-rated significantly year-to-date, largely on news flow so far. Fundamentally, Nomura has always flagged RCom’s extensive network reach in India and internationally, but it has been difficult to ascribe a proper value to it, given high gearing levels and inconsistent execution. “This deal could provide better financial visibility and we will reassess our forecasts pending further analysis,” Nomura said.
“For Indian telcos overall, seeing another viable competitor emerge with extensive coverage, spectrum and capital is hardly good news over the medium term. RIL may or may not be aggressive in the near-term, but the loss of incremental market share for the incumbents becomes a large risk,” Nomura said in its concluding remark.
The rise is due to a seasonal rise in imports, a surge in gold imports and sluggish exports, the brokerage firm said
India is scheduled to release its May trade data this week. Brokerage firm Nomura expects a record-high trade deficit of $21 billion in May from $17.8 billion in April. Nomura has cited three reasons for this:
First, the trade deficit has historically worsened sharply in May from higher chemical and fertilizer imports. Second, gold demand was elevated in May, as about 162 tonnes of gold were imported in response to falling gold prices. Lastly, external demand has been sluggish.
Nomura expects the trade deficit to improve in June, but the steep rise in April and May suggests that the current account deficit will widen to 5.5%-6% of GDP in Q2 2013 from 4%.-4.5% in Q1. Financing the current account deficit, therefore, remains a concern, and it is also one of the main reasons why the brokerage expects no repo rate cut in June.