Companies & Sectors
Caterpillar sets up new manufacturing plant in India for backhoe loaders

The company feels that the new facility would augment its distribution channel for its earth moving machines in India

Caterpillar India launched its new backhoe loader manufacturing facility in Thiruvallur near Chennai. The new facility not only strengthens the company’s growing presence in India but also augments the distribution channel for this popular earth-moving machine by bringing in enhanced local production capabilities, it said in a release. The facility was inaugurated by Robert Droogleever, general manager for Caterpillar BHL Worldwide.  

By increasing their manufacturing footprint to India, Caterpillar aims to provide Indian customers one of the most reliable and sought after heavy-duty vehicles thus ensuring completion of their construction jobs in a highly efficient and productive manner. To be manufactured at the new facility in Thiruvallur, Caterpillar backhoe loaders bring together reliable and time tested features with unique and market leading technologies at prices that are within the reach of the mass market.

Kevin Thieneman, country manager- India, ASEAN and China, said, “India will make significant investments over the next several decades to build its infrastructure and support higher levels of urbanization.  This facility, our fourth manufacturing operation in India, positions us to meet industry growth and enables us to better serve our customers with the broadest range of products in the industry.”  

 

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Fixed Deposits Beats Stocks? Financial writers need financial literacy first

Recently both Times of India and Economic Times had claimed that fixed deposits trumped Sensex returns over the last 20 years. There are at least five flaws in the argument making the data, while correct, completely irrelevant in practical terms

On 9 April 2012 Times of India (TOI) and Economic Times (ET) (Don't buy and forget if you invest in stocks for the long term) carried an article which claimed that “it is high time investors shed the notion that they can earn handsome returns if they invest in stocks and forget about them for a very long time”. In other words, it was a case against the ‘buy and hold’ principle, which has served many a long-term investors well. The proposed solution: either do market-timing or invest in bank FDs (fixed deposits). This startling claim, which are backed by solid facts, is being discussed everywhere. Financial advisors and mutual funds are scrambling to justify why should one buy and hold stocks for the long-term if it does not even beat safe returns from bank FDs—far from fetching 3-4% more which is what one would expect after having taken the risk of investing in equities.

It is a well-known fact that equities trump bonds or fixed deposits over long periods of time in most countries. However, when we stumbled upon the article which claimed the opposite, we got curious, especially since Moneylife believes in the wealth-creating power of stocks over the long term. We looked closely at the analysis to check whether we missed out on anything.

According to the article, if one had invested in Sensex, in 1992 when it was 4,285, one would have got returns of 7.26% over the last 20 years, till March 2012. On the other hand, it said that if one had invested in one-year fixed deposits, over the same time frame, the returns would have yielded a much higher 8.35% returns. “This means that if you had invested Rs10,000 in the Sensex in 1992, it would have grown to Rs40,308 now. Several debt instruments would have yielded higher returns during this period. If the same money had been invested in a one-year fixed deposit with a commercial bank and rolled over every year, it would have grown to Rs49,722. Since this was for the long term, investors could have opted for five-year FDs that offered higher rates. This corpus would have been bigger at Rs70,854.” Based on selective facts, the argument is flawed for at least five reasons.

1. Arbitrary Dates: Any point-to-point comparison is completely arbitrary. This study coincidentally chose 1992 as the starting date. If one had entered the market a year earlier or a year later, the returns would have trumped fixed deposits. For instance, if you had entered the Indian market in 1993 instead of 1992, when Sensex was 2,280, you would have got 11.29% returns. Even a year earlier, in 1991, would have yielded a much higher returns of 13.73%. This is a huge difference from the 7.26% return noted earlier. Additionally, both are higher than either one-year or five-year fixed deposit schemes. Therefore, it is not only a matter of timing, which is fairly obvious, but also a question of conveniently choosing the time period when fixed deposits trump equities. It is very easy to look at the rear-view mirror and make pronouncements. This also applies to mutual fund performance which is why we choose rolling returns, as the basis of our analysis.

2. Tax: The biggest flaw is that there is no mention of tax. These returns are pre-tax. When the government takes away 30% of your interest income above a certain level as tax and allows you to earn long-term capital gains tax-free, it is foolish to consider pre-tax returns for comparison. Take into account taxes, and Sensex easily trumped post-tax FD returns. Instead of the 8.35% (one-year FD) returns mentioned earlier in the article, the return was found to be 5.86%, over the 20-year period. Similarly, the five-year FD scheme returned slightly higher at 6.21%. This is well below the 7.26% in case of equities even starting at 1992. We have assumed uniform taxation of 35% because while it is 35% now it was above 40% in the early 1990s.

3. Dividends: Like taxes, the ET/TOI article ignores another element—dividends. Over the long period of time, small dividends can make a huge difference. In our case, we found out that by just reinvesting dividends, every year, the annualised returns turned out to be 8.29%, a good 1.53 percentage points higher. This is a huge difference considering the power of compounding over long periods of time and erodes the edge of FDs fully.

4. Lumpsum Vs SIP: The study assumes that all the investment was made on one particular day in 1992. Most readers of Times and ET earn regularly, save regularly and should invest regularly. They don’t make lumpsum investment or should not. Any financial literate person knows the importance of regular investing, or Systematic Investment Plan (SIP), which can work better than lumpsum investment usually. Our study showed that if one had invested just Rs500 (or any amount for that matter), every month, for the period 1992-2012, this strategy would have netted you a cool 11.60% return, again higher than FD returns.

5. Index Buying: Finally, who bought Sensex in 1992 or buys even now? You could invest in units of Unit Trust of India in 1992 and most people would have advised an average investor to invest in blue chips like ITC and Hindustan Lever (now Hindustan Unilever). These stocks have done far better than Sensex. Mutual funds were not in the vogue then. Index investing wasn’t even present in India then. There are very few people who invest in index funds even now. The best performing mutual funds have done 5-6% better than Sensex (and bank FDs on average).

If you are interested in personal finance and financial literacy, you would have to do your own homework and not trust the findings of either distributors, financial companies or media, packaged in dramatic headlines, because financial journalists themselves can be lacking in financial literacy.

COMMENTS

Ashwin Sheorey

5 years ago

I agree to the above. The article also does not consider the bonus shares issued.

Preeti Deshpande

5 years ago

Hilarious experience

I am not a regular moneylife reader and came here only because one of my friends sent this link saying “you may like this hilarious piece”. After reading the article and also the comments, I fully agree with him.

The article heading says “Financial writers need financial literacy” and the supposed to be financially literate author – Mr Debashis Basu – doesn’t even know the basic mathematical calculations. He is writing that “we found out that by just reinvesting dividends, every year, the annualised returns turned out to be 8.29%, a good 1.53 percentage points higher”. Who on earth will be able to teach him that the difference between 7.26% and 8.29% is only 1.03 percentage points and not 1.53 percentage points.

Please don’t abuse me for pointing out this blunder. I am saying this upfront because I have noticed that you are calling people “stupid”, “moron”, etc for pointing out other mistakes.

REPLY

Moneylife Digital Team

In Reply to Preeti Deshpande 5 years ago

Thanks for pointing out the BIG error :)
Our annualised return figure was wrong. In your poor effort at sarcasm, you simple assumed that the dividend reinvested figure is wrong.
Except that the return figure now, after dividend reinvested is 8.79%. For clearer understanding of the mathematical wizard \"Ms Deshpande\", it is now 7.26%+1.53%=8.79%.
But we agree it is hilarious. Your effort, that is. Since it strengthens our argument even more. :) Thanks

Rajiv

In Reply to Preeti Deshpande 5 years ago

Wow, you took all this trouble to point out this one great monumental flaw! Congrats!

Vinod

In Reply to Rajiv 5 years ago

Truly hilarious. But, of course, I hope arithmetical genius and financially illiterate Ms Deshpande is not laughing now

Anil Agashe

5 years ago

Judging from the comments of some people it only reinforces the need of financial literacy. Anyway it is good to know the level of stupidity that is prevalent in our midst. If someone thinks investing in FDs is best then best luck to them why should we complain? ET and TOI is for such people. As long as we have people lie Mr Mehul we still have hope. I am quite certain that people who have written against stocks are ones who invested at wrong time in fancy scrips and have made heavy loses and so are saying FDs are better! If you bought in 2007 at stupidly high prices and then suffered loses then you deserve those loses and so stick with FDs. Markets are not for idiots it requires intelligence to make money in markets or anywhere. FDs and PPF are for people who do not want to use brains and therefore give moderate returns.
It is a well known fact that people who are not open to test their perspectives are the ones who are fanatics. In way all these people who are in love with FDs are like communists who deny all things that are against their out dated ideology.

Chetan

5 years ago

Please send this article and all comments below to ET. Give them some food for thought. Good work Money Life. You have a customer here, will subscribe to your magazines too. Good luck and keep writing unbiased articles on personal finance.

(PS: I'm a financial advisor & will quote this to my clients if need be:))

P Vijayan Nair

5 years ago

Thank you for this enlightening article. The Times of India perhaps forgot to mention "Advertorial".

Roopsingh

5 years ago

I think moneylife should not try to be PRO equity culture and trying to push investors for equity investing the way market behaves ie like speculation(not like solid fundamentals),
the writer of the ET has taken the example of india for 20 yrs-but if we exclude last 5 yrs and take calculation for 15 yrs period from 1982 to 1997-then just make a guess what could be outcome of return generated from equities?
i guess it could bbe hardly2-3% annually,
what about equity returns in Japan Nikkei since last 30 yrs(fairly long term period)
and just see it is in negative return.Nikkei was around 40000 3.5 decades back and today it is hovering around 10000-
does this SOLID example justifies investing in Equities any more?
i am sure moneylife took a biased look in contradicting the article.

REPLY

Pranav

In Reply to Roopsingh 5 years ago

this is once again foolish, selective analysis. have you even the read the article or even understood it? Shows how tough it is to make people financially literate

Raju

5 years ago

This is the stupidest article I have ever seen on Moneylife and seems to have done to get some cheap publicity. Anyway, let us concentrate on the flaws in your arguments:
1. Nothing arbitrary about the date selection – I think the ET has selected the 1992 peak to bust the common myth that equity will “always generate better return in long term”. Don’t want to argue further if you think 20 years is not long term enough 
2. Now about the taxation angle – Equity is supposed to generate better return because it’s risky and not because its tax efficient. If you consider tax and compare with similar products, PFF would have generated much better return in the last 20 years – I can’t remember even a single year when the PPF rate was at 7.3%
3. Your argument about dividend is also flawed. While the Sensex calculations ignore about dividends, please note that it also assume that there is no transaction costs – ie you can buy / sell the stocks in Sensex without any brokerage at the time of initial buying and also whenever there is a change in index constituent. So the so called dividend income would have been negated by these transaction costs. And even after assuming zero transaction cost and adding dividends, your calculated return of 8.29% is still well below the return PPF would have been generated during the last 20 years.
Regards,
Ramesh

REPLY

Nehal Batheja

In Reply to Raju 5 years ago

Dear Raju/Ramesh,

I am 90 years old, have lived in 5 different continents, and I have never come across a more stupid man than YOU!

1) Equity investments have to be staggered; not invested in only in 1992.

2) Equity makes 30% better returns than FDs due to TAX, not just risk. PPF invetmets have a limit and in PPF you earn only 8.5% at best.

3) If you guy and hold you don't incur much transaction cost. Transaction cost is significant when you trade. The dividends earned DO add to earning. These dividends are tax free unlike interest from your FDs.

Regards,

Nehal V Batheja

Moneylife Digital Team

In Reply to Nehal Batheja 5 years ago

Thank you Mr Batheja for taking the trouble to write. We normally ignore comments that are deliberately spiteful and also foolish. There are all kinds of morons. Otherwise who would read our article and vomit out this rubbish

Sudhin

In Reply to Moneylife Digital Team 5 years ago

Moneylife has gone to nuts and shows their "yellow journalism culture" with this post. Else, how can they praise Nehal Batheja's post that states "Equity makes 30% better returns". Would be nice to see which "long term period" equity has made that. Or is the praise for calling the earlier poster "stupid"? If this is your culture, I have to stop reading your magazine and stop checking your site for ever.

DG

5 years ago

Reasoned, factual and watchful of investor interests - the article stands for the best attributes of Moneylife.

Even the Times group, with all its commercial biases, cannot justify deliberately picking up '92 scam driven peak to create such a misleading article. And then provide the wrong conslusion by ignoring tax.
Simple facts - the data qouta by ET/TOI proves that:

1. Over the long-term you do not lose money in stocks even if you invest at the top of a boom!
2. Pay attention to post-tax returns = the money you actually take home. Again stocks beat everything else.

There is no better investment than a well-run, competitive business. And stocks are the best way for most investors to participate. Unless you have the money to buy the business and the smarts to run it yourself!

REPLY

Moneylife Digital Team

In Reply to DG 5 years ago


There is no better investment than a well-run, competitive business. And stocks are the best way for most investors to participate. Unless you have the money to buy the business and the smarts to run it yourself!

Well, said. This is sooooooooooo hard for people to understand. They get tied down in all kinds of selective data analysis. Also, there is something in us which seeks to negate business success. A Satyam will be shown as the example of why not to buy stocks, a selective 20 year data will be massaged to show equity is worse than FD

Sudhin

In Reply to Moneylife Digital Team 5 years ago

Moneylife has gone to nuts and shows their "yellow journalism culture" with this post. Else, how can they praise Nehal Batheja's post that states "Equity makes 30% better returns". Would be nice to see which "long term period" equity has made that. Or is the praise for calling the earlier poster "stupid"? If this is your culture, I have to stop reading your magazine and stop checking your site for ever.

Pranav

In Reply to Sudhin 5 years ago

If it is yellow journalism culture and Moneylife has gone nuts, why are you here?

Muthu

5 years ago

Thanks for your detailed analysis on the issue. Moneylife has an extensive reach and would help many people.

Normally though I read extensively, I try my best to differentiate information from noise; and most of the things in financial media are just noise.

As a newspaper ad says; sense not sensation which matters.

Many advisors themselves got confused with this analysis. That is the reason why I wrote a piece in my blog comparing last 33 years of performance between FDs, Gold, Silver and Sensex, adjusting for inflation. Otherwise I completely ignore most of the things which appear in financial media. As you’ve rightly pointed out, an arbitrary point to point comparison can be misleading. Even in that arbitrary comparison, if dividend yield is accounted for it still proves the newspaper’s comparison wrong.

I’ve not come across any good investor who takes decisions based on financial media.

As investors, if we ask simple and basic questions, it covers most of the issues. We need not worry about few complex issues which may occasionally fall outside the simple and basic analysis.

Also it is wrong for someone to invest lump sum in an Index at such high multiples. That education could have been done by the newspaper along with the article. As you’ve rightly pointed out, investing through SIP, dividend yield and taxation was completely ignored. Your SIP analysis of 11.6% is a very useful pointer.

Peter Drucker said about information overload beautifully:

“It’s bred in the bones of human race that the more information, the better- it’s quantity that counts. But when information is no longer scarce, believe me, you very soon learn that less is more, and that more is most definitely less. And you learn that quality counts and information is something that has to be selected.”

There are few things I first learned only at Moneylife. How the highest NAV guaranteed scheme works and how exchange rate movements affect the gold price and creates impression that gold price never falls.

Please keep up the good work.

As you’ve rightly pointed out, investors need to learn to ask right questions and do the home work instead of blindly relying on media or even what advisors like us tells.
Miles to go.. but it is definitelty possible.

People like me hardly reach few hundred people but Moneylife has the ability to reach far wider investor population and hats off to your work on empowering people.

Dinesh

5 years ago

Public memory is short. The same ET:

Long-term investors having a bull ride

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes...

Moneylife Digital Team

5 years ago

The point of the ET/TOI article was to tell you a lesson from the past and what not to do in future. But to do that, we cannot extrapolate the past. We have to calculate everything in practical terms today - taxes, dividends, SIP...and also be alive in the future whether any of the conditions have changed. If any of the conditions that made equity attractive change, returns will change. Like if there is long-term capital gains of 30%, bank FDs will be attractive. Also, if equity prices shoot up for some reason and PE becomes 80 (as was in Japan in 1989), equity would be a poor investment for the next 20 years. Sensible investment research is more than back-of-the-envelope calculations

REPLY

Ramesh

In Reply to Moneylife Digital Team 5 years ago

Finally you decide to accept that the ET article was right - ie if you invest at extended valuations, equity will generate poor return even after holding for 20 years. Congrats for the courage.

Dinesh

In Reply to Ramesh 5 years ago

It is not about courage. It is about honest intellectual curiosity and seek the real facts. For people like you everything is black and white, win or lose...I am sure all your money is in FD - or may under the mattress

Madhur Kotharay

5 years ago

Debashis, you are spot on. It was just a cheap article in ET.

April 1992 was when Sucheta was about to expose Harshad Mehta fraud and the P/E was 45. Currently, P/E is 15. How can you calculate gains from peak bull market to strong bear market?

If you adjust for sentiment, i.e. either assume P/E 15 on both dates (today and 20 years ago) or check the EPS gains (and not the absolute value of Sensex), the Sensex EPS gains would have been 13.35% CAGR instead of 7.3% CAGR (Sensex gains). Add to that dividend yield of 1% reinvested and you get 14.5% returns CAGR.

Sad that they are publishing an article like this when people should actually be investing. One Mr Rajiv Ahuja in his comments on your article below has said that many of his friends find FDs give better returns than stocks.

That is because people like Mr Ahuja don't invest when things are bad such as now. They wake up to invest when there is irrational exuberance in the market and Sensex gains is the talk of the housewife kitty parties.

I have been trying my best to get near and dear non-investor friends to invest in this market and most aren't listening. THEY are telling ME why we should NOT be investing right now as the situation is so bad!!! Tragically, they have been right so far. :-(

I am 90% invested and waiting on the sidelines to invest the rest in the 3 months on a severe fall. Hope Mr Ahuja does so too. He will have a different story to tell after 3 years (probably, not after 3 months).

I wrote to ET the same night complaining about it and gave detailed explanation. They defended that they were doing the right thing. I did not argue further.

Ayush Jain

5 years ago

The above article doesn't mention 80L when it talks about tax. It also talks about SIP - how many investors were aware of this concept in 1992 ? Like you mentioned there were hardly any MFs, so even for those who were aware, it would have been difficult to execute.

The article mentions about investing Rs 500/month, and then later says there was no index buying in 1992. So in what was this Rs 500/month invested, which got 11.60% returns ? The calculation needs to be explained.

The ET article may not have been perfect (tax/dividend angles should have been mentioned), but it is still an eye-opener. It does show that one cannot simply assume that equities will always beat FDs. Even taking into account the tax & dividend advantages, the outperformance is maybe 2% (CAGR). Sure, it's point-to-point, but then 20 years is a long time period !

Finally, when talking about equity, we should always remember the experience in Japan - 20-25 years later, the 'Nikkei 225' index is still at 25% of it's value. Please do a calculation based on this experience and show if a SIP strategy over last 30 years would have worked in Japan.

REPLY

pravsemilo

In Reply to Ayush Jain 5 years ago

Ayush,

Investing in equities will beat all the asset classes. Recently there was an analysis which was also published in Moneylife which said that since 18 hundred something bonds were able to beat stocks only 2 times. Out of one and a half decade bonds could beat stocks only twice? Then definitely equity must have an edge over bonds.

Also regarding Japan I would suggest you to do a google search on "japan lost decade myth".

Ayush Jain

In Reply to pravsemilo 5 years ago

Dear Pravsemilo,

My point was on equity market returns in Japan, not the state of their economy. It's a fact that Nikkei is at ~25% of where it was 20 years ago. So I will repeat - let's see some data on SIP returns for a 30-yr period.

Secondly, this 'in the long term, equities will beat all asset classes' is a dangerous myth. The moneylife team have responded above and highlighted a couple of scenarios.

Rajiv Ahuja

5 years ago

Not only me but a lot of people have come to a conclusion that F.D give better returns than investing into stocks or mutual funds.

REPLY

John

In Reply to Rajiv Ahuja 5 years ago

On many issues, a lot of people can have wrong "conclusion" for a very long time.

Sarah

5 years ago

I did away with ET times years ago - it's fiRst purpose seems to be to create media frenzy & then popularize products and create a fake hype.
Business Standard and a coupla other weekly publications along with your website help keep facts FACTUAL!!

Public Interest Exclusive
MMRDA holds “public hearings” by giving a six-day notice with four days of holidays! – Part III

These hearings cannot be realistic without even the draft DPR and the preliminary drawings made available for study to the public. Such hearings could be safely termed as a farce

On 5 April 2012, the Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority (MMRDA) announced holding of a public hearing of the Mumbai Metro Master Plan’s (MMMP) Line III alignment on 11 April 2012. The line travels through Colaba-Churchgate-Flora Fountain-VT-Girgaum-Grant Road-Mumbai Central-Mahalaxmi-Worli-Prabhadevi-Dadar-Sitla Devi-Dharavi-BKC-Airport-MIDC-SEEPZ. MMRDA’s R Ramana, additional chief engineer, transportation planning co-ordinated the hearing arrangements and proceedings. Under the chairmanship of SRV Srinivas, additional metropolitan commissioner, MMRDA, the proceedings commenced 40 minutes late and progressed there on. PRK Murthy, chief engineer, transportation & communications division of MMRDA, GR Madan, director mass rapid transit systems, T&C Division, MMRDA, VK Phatak, former chief town & country planning, MMRDA, Dr Vikas Tondwalkar, director environment, MMRDA, and Vishram Patil, chief of rehabilitation and resettlement (R&R), MMRDA were on the dais. At the end, Metropolitan Commissioner Rahul Asthana joined the panel. 

 
MMRDA distributed an information sheet which stated that the fully underground Metro III will be 33.5 km and have 27 conveniently located stations. It would be having interconnectivity with Central Railway at VT (CSTM), with Western Railway at Churchgate, Grant Road and Mumbai Central stations, with Metro I at Marol Naka and Metro II at BKC and with the Monorail at Jacob Circle (Sant Gadge Maharaj Chowk).

The construction would be by Tunnel Boring Machine (TBM), NATM or cut & cover. It did not mention which all stretches would be by TBM and C&C methods but they mentioned during the proceedings that each station of C&C would take about a year and a half to construct.

A typical underground station would be fully air-conditioned, will have a concourse level and the platform level. Entry and exit, the information sheet said, will be by escalators and lifts, but MMRDA did not mention anything about a staircase. It will be designed for eight-coach trains. Station fire and emergency systems will be designed as per international standards (NFPA-130).

The information sheet tries to compare benefits of the Metro Line III with a motorcar trip and suburban rail travel. The comparison is faulty as it mentions a trip from Colaba, Cuffe Parade to Mumbai Airport; the directly connected alignment of the Metro with suburban rail for which there will be two road components of travel. It also mentions the time taken by a motorcar during peak period. Off-peak period travel time by a motorcar will actually take merely 40 minutes while it mentions it as 100 minutes, obviously for peak period travel. Metro travel is mentioned as 50 minutes, which, considering the 1.24 km average spacing of stations, limited permissible acceleration and deceleration, will give an average speed of not more than 30 kmph. This would mean, including dwell time, the airport trip will take not less than 70 minutes. Of course they have not tried to compare travel time with a BRTS, which can have an average speed of 25 to 30 kmph.

While the information sheet envisages the project completion by 2019, it says that ridership will be 13.87 lakh per day by 2025 and 16.99 lakh by 2031. It is silent on ridership in 2019. It does not give the peak period capacity in terms of pphpd (passengers per hour per direction) for the given frequency of an eight-coach train.

MMRDA stated that the Detail Project Report is ready. The advertisement of 5 April 2012 had mentioned that Mr Ramana could be contacted for any additional information. This sounds quite proper but when one sees the short time of six days between 5th and 10th had within that, four days of holidays—Mahavir Jayanti, Good Friday, Saturday and Sunday, leaving only Monday and Tuesday to even approach Mr Ramana, the whole hearing could be termed as farce. Despite this, the number who attended the hearing was reasonably good; the small Hall of the College of Insurance was full.

Issues raised by citizens varied from alignment and wanting the Charkop-Bandra made underground to issues of rehabilitation and Airport stations ‘gifted’ to GVK, the “owners/managers” of Chhattrapati Shivaji International Airport (CSIA) to the issue concerned with Sustainable Urban Mobility.

 
Nitin Killawalla, Architect from Juhu Vile Parle area spearheading the campaign for having underground Metro Line II instead of planned elevated, suggested that Line II and Line III be merged and made underground right from Cuffe Parade, Colaba to Bandra and bifurcate one line continuing to Charkop and the other to Airport and SEEPZ. The Bandra-Mankhurd route could continue as planned. He cited hourly figures of boardings or alightings in the sections Charkop to Bandra to be 1,25,000 and Bandra to Cuffe Parade to be 1,89,000 in 2031. By doing this, he stated that the entire stabling yard or car shed planned in the Aarey “green” zone could be averted, using the Charkop area as planned for Line II.

Isn’t the site of Charkop car shed planned at Lalji Pada having an R&R issue?

The alignment going to SEEPZ via domestic and international airports passes through slums of Chimatpada and Sahar village. Representatives from these areas articulated their apprehensions of R&R. Former corporator from the area, Mr Almeida brought out the fact that GVK was given the land at a very insignificant price and was given development rights for three stations passing through the Airport touching domestic and international terminals and Sahar Road where the cargo section is located. To this, someone from Girgaum said that they too could be allowed to develop their ‘stations’ and commercially exploit them! Apparently the lands taken by MIDC from “bhoomiputras” were not compensated for in terms of R&R. They too wanted to come into the fold of R&R of the project.

Looking into the location of the Airport Stations, it gives the impression that the distance an air passenger will have to traverse will be so high that they may continue with their current mode of cars and taxis. In Delhi, the Airport metro train carries barely a score of people although the frequency is as high as 12 minutes. The reason is that the distance to be traversed to the metro station is long and takes 30 minutes to walk to after deplaning.

The author of this article reiterated the issue of Sustainable Urban Mobility. He briefly put forth the points he had written to the ministry of urban development about six weeks back, which has been covered in these columns “Metro Line 3 – Some questions need to be asked” and “Mumbai Metro Projects Attract Modifications by Centre”.

He said “As far as Mumbai is concerned, there seems to be little attention given to Sustainable Urban Mobility. All projects taken up seem to be of high cost, of long delivery duration and serving minuscule population of the city, while the majority of population suffers due to relief giving projects not being considered at all. Annual fatality figure of nearly 4,000 on overcrowded suburban rail system seems to be an irrelevant issue as much as the density of these commuters.

In a city where 44% walk to work, 3.1% use bicycles and most, including many using personal motor vehicles (only 2.8% use motorcars) use public transport or walk, focus seems to be on this small percent of population using personal motorized transport. Even the Mumbai Metro Master Plan and Mumbai Monorail Master Plan and the grand Garland Road Plan will not address the transportation and quality of life issues adequately or early.”

He recounted the twelve points from his letter to MoUD:
1.    Line 3 has 27 stations in 33.5 km length, giving an average station spacing of 1.24 km.

2.    Six- coach train will require about 135m of station length

3.    It is presumed that access to station platform will be through staircases, escalators and elevators. Their location on the roads would curtail the road pedestrian movements significantly unless the DPR has shown how it will not.

4.    DPR is not available for comments.

5.    At what depth would stations be and if they are at higher levels, then what is the method of construction envisaged?

6.    It is assumed that Tunnel Boring Machine (TBM) will be used to bore the tunnel. Where would the TBM inserted into ground to commence boring and how would the excavated material removed and disposed off?

7.    How would the rakes be stabled? Where would the cars shed be located?

8.    What are the methods of providing ventilation and air-conditioning? Power requirement, how will this be met?

9.    What are the disaster mitigation plans and disaster management plans?

10.    There is a seismic faultline passing through the geological structure of Mumbai. How have they addressed this issue?

11.    Unlike the earlier Line 3 alignment which was going through the erstwhile mill areas of the island city that did not have railway line, the new alignment avoids that completely and runs almost parallel to the Western Railway line till Mumbai Central and Mahalaxmi stations. Intention may have been to bring it closer to Malabar Hill and Cumballa Hill where personal motorcar usage is very high. However, it is highly unlikely that personal motorcar users will use the Metro if the stations are not passing very close to their dwellings. The route needs to be reviewed from an overall perspective of reducing personal motorcar usage.

12.    There is no mention of how stations will be fed with commuters or how they will be dispersed. Whether they propose to provide for parking cars and if so, the very purpose of providing public transport through Metro gets defeated if one provides these car parks. Firstly these will be totally inadequate, forcing people to either park on road sides or use cars for full distances.

Of all these points, SRV Srinivas responded to the point on Disaster Management aspects in very general terms but did not mention what mitigation measures were being adopted. Mr Madan mentioned that they were going to adopt designs for eight-coach train as against six-coach they had been mentioning earlier. This would mean that the station length will be 180 m.

The positive part was that they all acknowledged the fact that the Metro Rail will take enormous time and nodded to the comment that Sustainable Urban Mobility must get priority in the form of making infrastructure for walking, cycling and the BRTS. How far the affirmative nod will take matters to reality is anybody’s guess.

(Sudhir Badami is a civil engineer and transportation analyst. He is on Government of Maharashtra’s Steering Committee on BRTS for Mumbai and Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority’s Technical Advisory Committee on BRTS for Mumbai. He is also member of Research & MIS Committee of Unified Mumbai Metropolitan Transport Authority. He was member of Bombay High Court appointed erstwhile Road Monitoring Committee (2006-07). While he has been an active campaigner against Noise for more than a decade, he is a strong believer in functioning democracy. He can be contacted on email at [email protected]

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COMMENTS

DrSharmila Rao PN

5 years ago

Out of curiosity, what if these discussions took place on a public forum like doordarshan, and invited people to give their opinion?

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