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DTC may come into force from April next year: FM

"If we have the report of the standing committee in the Winter Session of Parliament, I will have no problem in effecting it (DTC) from 1 April 2012," finance minister Pranab Mukherjee said in an interview to private news channel

New Delhi: Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee hopes that the Direct Taxes Code (DTC), which seeks to replace the Income Tax Act of 1961, would come into force from 1 April 2012, reports PTI.

"If we have it (the report of the standing committee) in the Winter Session (of Parliament), I will have no problem in effecting it from 1 April 2012," Mr Mukherjee said in an interview to private news channel CNBC TV18 on Friday.

The DTC is an ambitious tax reform that will replace the half a century old direct tax laws.

On the Goods and Services Tax (GST), Mr Mukherjee said, "We are on track ... there has been some progress".

He said both the Centre and the Empowered Committee of State Finance Ministers were in talks for implementation of the GST regime.

Besides Parliament, the GST Bill needs to be cleared by half of the state assemblies. Once implemented, GST would subsume most of the indirect taxes like excise duty.

On economic prospects this fiscal, Mr Mukherjee said agricultural output is expected to be good. Besides, a better show by the core sector industries would help the country in achieving economic growth in the coming quarters.

"Growth scenario will move upwards from the second quarter or at least from the third quarter onwards," he said.

While the Reserve Bank of India has pegged the economic growth for 2011-12 at 8%, the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council has estimated it at 8.2%.

The Indian economy expanded at the slowest pace in six quarters by 7.7% in the first (April-June) quarter of the current fiscal. It was 8.8% in the corresponding period last fiscal.

The output of eight infrastructure industries rose at its fastest pace in 15 months in July at 7.8%, against 5.7% in the corresponding period last fiscal.

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A ‘morning star’ pattern increases the probability that the recent lows should hold in corrections

The bears will try to counterattack after last week’s drubbing. But if they fail, the bulls will try to make further gains. So volatility is bound to be high 

S&P Nifty close: 5040

Market trend
SHORT term: Down        MEDIUM term: Down        LONG term: Sideways


The Nifty opened higher and rallied further in a week with fewer trading sessions on account of the festival holidays. Volumes were significantly lower, but volatility remained high. Short covering was witnessed across the board and this resulted in the Nifty gaining a hefty 293 points (+6.15%) through the week. Sectoral indices which led the advance were BSE Metal (+11.52%), BSE Realty (+10.09%), BSE Bankex (+6.87%) and BSE Auto (+6.50%). The ones that underperformed the benchmark were BSE Power (+2.44%), BSE FCMG (+2.65%) and BSE PSU (+2.83%).

The histogram MACD continues to be below the median line as the medium-term trend is firmly down. Last week we saw a contra-trend rise begin, as anticipated, and those who covered their shorts and brave hearts who went long were rewarded handsomely. The 'morning star' pattern on the weekly charts has raised the possibility that we may have seen a significant bottom that could hold for a few weeks at least, if not for a few months.

Here are some key levels to watch out for this week.

  • As long as the S&P Nifty holds above 4,986 points (pivot) the bears will be under pressure.
  •  Support levels are pegged at 4,859 and 4,678 points.
  •  If the S&P Nifty holds above the 4,986 points level in close, in any correction, it could rise further to 5,167 or 5,294 points.

Observations

The bulls have succeeded in putting a foot in the door of the bear juggernaut, but they will have to ensure that the recent low holds in any corrections which take place from here on. On the support levels,
1. The Fibonacci retracement levels of the recent rise from 4,720-5,113 points are 4,963 (38.2%), 4,916 (50%) and 4,870 (61.8%). These should act as supports in dips.
2. The resistance in any further rise will be provided by the 'gap area' between 5,229 and 5,323 points.
3. A close in the mentioned 'gap area' could lay the foundation of a retracement of the fall from 6,338-4,720 points, although no confirmation is available as yet.

Strategy


The bears will try to counterattack after last week's drubbing, but if they fail to break the mentioned Fibonacci support levels, then the bulls would try to make further inroads into bear territory. As a result volatility is bound to be high. The significant resistance to watch out for is the 5,229-5,323 points range.

(Vidur Pendharkar is a consultant technical analyst and chief strategist at www.trend4casting.com.)

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