Brokerages say uncertain business conditions, regulatory hurdles for various projects and higher borrowing costs continue to hurt heavy engineering firms
The capital goods sector continues to be troubled by postponement of capex decisions by companies in uncertain business conditions, regulatory hurdles for projects and rising borrowing costs, which are all likely to hurt first quarter performance, according to various brokerages.
This sector, which has such biggies like BHEL and Sterlite as well as Thermax and Jyoti Structure, will see the full impact of rising input costs in the April-June 2011 period, according to ICICI Direct. The brokerage expects consolidated EBITDA margins of 12.9%, a decline of 70 basis points year-on-year and 680 basis points quarter-on-quarter, which is understandable as the first quarter is usually the weakest period for the business.
Angel Broking says that the capital goods index is still in the doldrums. In the three months to 30 June 2011, the index outperformed the broader indices with a gain of 5.1% in absolute terms, outperforming the benchmark Sensex by 8.2%. The index reported negative returns in April and May, but bounced back by about 6% in June, largely aided by the recent rally in the broader markets.
The spike in capital goods production reported in the June IIP numbers (Index of Industrial Production) also had a positive impact. But this is likely to be temporary, given the deteriorating macro-economic environment.
ICICI Direct estimates aggregate revenues for the sector in the first quarter at Rs13,005 crore (an 18.4% y-o-y increase, but a nearly 50% q-o-q decline). It has estimated aggregate profit after tax (PAT) at Rs1,031 crore (an increase of 7.9% y-o-y and a decline by 68% q-o-q). EBITDA is estimated at Rs1,677 crore (a 12.2% y-o-y increase and a decline of 66.9% q-o-q).
There are some significant challenges for the sector in the power segment where coal linkages, delay in land acquisition and environment clearances are expected to remain a drag in the near-term.
Notwithstanding these issues, ICICI Direct believes that BHEL and transmission companies will post better than average Q1 results, given the robust order backlog, relatively better order inflows and robust execution.
Motilal Oswal is positive on the sector, and has listed BHEL, L&T, Siemens and Cummins as its superior performers. Despite the uncertainty over interest rates and project awards, the brokerage is positive on the upturn in government and private capex.
Prabhudas Lilladher expects Suzlon Energy to be one of the better performers in the sector in the first quarter with estimated net sales of Rs4,116 crore (a growth of 71.2%y-o-y), EBITDA at Rs279 crore. It believes that domestic volumes would be up by 66% y-o-y at 250MW, driven by a strong domestic order book. However, the company would register an estimated net loss of Rs172 crore due to huge interest and deprecation costs.
The brokerage has picked Kalpataru Power Transmission as another good performer, with steady sales growth of 14.4% y-o-y to Rs613 crore. The company has announced orders worth Rs450 crore from domestic markets and Rs860 crore from international markets.
KR Choksey notes that while the investment cycle in core industries and the rate of capital formation has slowed down due to high capital cost and subdued demand, an easing of interest rates, improving sentiment with capacity utilisation could be the catalyst for a revival in the capex cycle in the medium term.
Senior advocate Fali S Nariman appearing for Sahara Group firm submitted that till the final order of the SAT, it will not invite any fresh deposit in the OFCD scheme
New Delhi: The Supreme Court today directed Sahara Group firm Sahara India Real Estate Corporation to approach the Securities Appellate Tribunal (SAT) against market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India's (SEBI) order directing the return of money collected from investors for an optionally fully convertible debentures (OFCD) scheme within a period of three weeks, reports PTI.
A three-member bench headed by chief justice SH Kapadia also directed SAT to decide Sahara India Real Estate Corp's appeal against SEBI within a period of eight weeks.
"We are of the view that keeping in mind interest of the investors... better option would be to give an opportunity to the petitioner (Sahara) a hearing before SAT," the bench observed.
Meanwhile, senior advocate Fali S Nariman appearing for Sahara Group firm submitted that till the final order of the SAT, it will not invite any fresh deposit in the OFCD scheme.
"We make it clear, in the appeal which is proposed, that ministry of corporate affairs (MCA) should be a party as a respondent, particularly in view of issues arising in this statutory appeal," the bench added.
The apex court also said that the interim order of SEBI would not be operational till the appeal is decided by SAT.
In addition, the apex court directed the Sahara Group firm to withdraw its petition filed against SEBI in the Allahabad High Court.
The apex court said that SAT will take a decision irrespective of SEBI's interim order and the remarks passed by the Allahabad High Court in this issue.
The apex court also directed the Sahara Group firm not to take any adjournments before SAT.
The issue relates to SEBI's finding in November that two Sahara Group firms-Sahara India Real Estate Corporation and Sahara Housing Investment Corporation-were raising funds from the public through an optionally fully convertible debentures (OFCD) scheme without conforming to prudent disclosure and other investor protection norms.
Subsequently, the Sahara Group had contested SEBI's authority to look into the issue in the Supreme Court, asserting that it was a privately held company and not listed and therefore, was under the jurisdiction of the ministry of corporate affairs.
Earlier, on 27th June, a vacation bench of the apex court comprising justices P Sathasivam and AK Patnaik had declined to hear the plea of Sahara India Real Estate Corp and asked it to list the matter before the chief justice, who has been hearing the case.
Following the orders of the Supreme Court, SEBI had on 23rd June directed the two Sahara Group firms-Sahara India Real Estate Corporation and Sahara Housing Investment Corporation-to refund the money, along with 15% interest, raised through its OFCD scheme for violating regulatory norms.
As per SEBI's order, the two companies, promoter Subrata Roy Sahara and directors Vandana Bhargava, Ravi Shankar Dubey and Ashok Roy Choudhary, jointly and severally, shall refund the money.
Besides, the regulator had also restrained the entities from accessing the securities market for raising funds till the time payments are made to the satisfaction of the SEBI.
OFCDs are a type of bond with the option to fully convert them into equity at a rate decided by the company.
For the week ending 13th July, the monsoon rains were 19% below normal but the weather office has presented an outlook of fairly widespread rainfall over many parts of the country barring southeast peninsula for the next five days
New Delhi: After an upbeat start, India's monsoon slipped into the red this week with the country receiving 3% deficient rains since its onset in June, reports PTI.
As per statistics released by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), eight of the 36 sub-divisions had received deficient rainfall in a month when farmers take up sowing in a big way.
For the week ending 13th July, the monsoon rains were 19% below normal but the weather office has presented an outlook of fairly widespread rainfall over many parts of the country barring southeast peninsula for the next five days.
Southeast peninsular region is expected to get scattered rains during the period.
Last year, rainfall was 24% below normal in the week to 14th July after a weak start in June, but rains picked up in the remaining period of the four-month monsoon and ended as normal.
In April, the IMD had forecast normal monsoon for the June-September season and pegged the rainfall at 98% of the Long Period Average of 89 cm.
On 21st June, the weather office had downgraded its forecast from 'normal' to 'below normal', with southern peninsula being the worst hit.
The IMD has warned that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over Uttarakhand, Haryana, west Uttar Pradesh, north-eastern states, Konkan & Goa, coastal & north interior Karnataka, Kerala and Madhya Maharashtra over the next two days.