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Capital goods orders decline for third consecutive quarter, belie recovery assumption

While analysts and commentators are celebrating an industrial revival, order inflow for EPC companies have witnessed a 6% decline qoq and 14% decline yoy in the December quarter – a third consecutive quarter of decline

Companies in the engineering, capital goods and infrastructure (ECI) segment have reported a decline in order inflow for the third consecutive quarter due to lacklustre activity by India Inc, especially in capital spends that has resulted in muted order inflows for ECI companies.

In a research report brokerage, Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd said, “Order inflows (estimated) for the third quarter of FY10 declined by 14% year-on-year (y-o-y) and 6% quarter-on-quarter to Rs302 billion and order inflows (estimated) for the first nine months of FY10 declined by 7% y-o-y to Rs961 billion.”

The decline in order inflows is led by cyclical or process sectors like metals, oil & gas and chemicals, witnessing near halt or standstill in capital expenditure (capex) activities. Structural sectors like power and infrastructure largely supported by government participation reported robust business activity translating into strong order inflows for ECI companies, the brokerage added.

It said companies like McNally Bharat Engineering Co Ltd and TRF Ltd reported strong growth in order inflows at 84% y-o-y and 60% y-o-y respectively in the first nine months of FY10 (estimated)—led by exposure to structural capex. Large companies like L&T recorded 12% y-o-y growth in order inflows, benefited by exposure to structural capital expenditure. Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd (BHEL) is an exception, reporting 25% decline in order inflows in the first nine months of FY10 (estimated), despite significant exposure to structural capex. As expected, companies like Punj Lloyd Ltd and Elecon Engineering Co Ltd reported muted order inflows in the first nine months of FY10 (estimated) owing to large exposure to process capex.

For the third quarter of FY10 (estimated), Punj Lloyd Ltd witnessed a 100% y-o-y negative growth in order inflow, with not even a single order. While McNally Bharat Ltd has had a strong order inflow for the nine months, order inflow for the company witnessed a marginal decline of 0.6% y-o-y. L&T and Thermax reported a marginal increase of around 9% y-o-y. Order inflow for BHEL and Elecon Engineering has also declined sharply by 21.7% and 33.3% respectively.

McNally Bharat Ltd has emerged as the best performing company with high growth in order inflows. McNally Bharat’s order inflow has been boosted mainly by a slew of orders in the June- July 2009 period, mainly for power projects and steel & zinc plants. The company recently won an order worth Rs330 crore from Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL).

While there has been a lot of consensual optimism and management expectation for higher order inflows for ECI companies, such dismal order inflow figures are surprising.

Emkay said that it expects companies having least risk to FY11 (estimated) earnings accompanied by robust order inflows in the first nine months of FY10 (estimated) or healthy order book cover to progressively rollover the valuation to FY12E earnings in the next two quarters or by first quarter FY11 (estimated).


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We now have world-class technology, processes, complete range of products and modern HR practices

SBI chairman AK Purwar has taken on the challenge of turning a banking behemoth into a nimble-footed and tech-savvy entity.

After a brief stint as a lecturer in Business Administration at the Allahabad University, Arun Kumar Purwar opted to become a banker. He soon realised that he had found his calling in banking. At one time, a job at the State Bank of India (SBI) was the most coveted one in the country. The SBI chairman presides over a mammoth, 200-year old organisation that dominates the banking industry with its 13,847 branches and over 5,500 ATMs. AK Purwar, 61, decided it was not enough. He chose to take on the challenge of turning this banking behemoth nimble-footed and tech-savvy through an aggressive computerisation programme. He also chose to match his private sector rivals in capturing every business opportunity from funding small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to micro credit and rural financing. Then, SBI’s sheer size provided intimidating competition, which was bolstered by a high-profile advertising campaign. SBI implemented the Core Banking Solution during his tenure. The fruits of this, in terms of a significant jump in credit card issuance and benefits from cross selling products of associate entities, became evident only after he retired

ML: Let us start at the very beginning. What made you choose banking as a career? Did you always aspire to be the chairman and plan your career accordingly?

Purwar: I completed my graduation and post-graduation from Allahabad University in 1966 from the commerce stream and began to prepare for the IAS examination. Various people persuaded me to appear for examinations to get into Indian Oil, Reserve Bank, SBI and others. I got through several of them. When I was selected by SBI, I went to my Head of Department, Dr. D. N. Asthana (Mr.Purwar was then teaching at the Allahabad University) and told him that I liked teaching and was not interested in banking. But he literally pushed me out of the University saying that banking would suit me. I joined the bank in 1968 and was assigned to the accounts department. I worked for one and half month but it was a total disaster. I felt like resigning from the bank even though my colleagues said it was a wonderful job. I was then given a second branch but it was only at my third branch posting that I began to develop a little liking for my work. I then forgot about an IAS career and my senior colleagues pushed me to appear for departmental examinations. I appeared for the CAIIB; it is a tough examination and I stood third in the country. I worked very hard because I believe in doing my best in what I take up and to see that it is completed.

ML: While you were in the first two branches, didn't you feel like leaving? What held you back?

Purwar: I felt like leaving many times. The first branch was a disaster, I became slightly relaxed in the second  and only in the third did I feel that this was the job I wanted. I was put in the credit department and it was interesting to deal with small-scale industries, visit their factories and see to their requirements. I felt I could play an important role in society. Moreover, in the third branch, my own educational background became useful and since I started taking interest in my work; the respect that I commanded from my colleagues and bosses radically improved; they started depending on me and gave me more work.

ML: At that point of time did you see yourself becoming Chairman of the bank?

Purwar: I never thought I would become Chairman in the first ten years. But in the last 20 years, people in the organisation have believed in me and gave me several important assignments. In 1990-91, I was particularly chosen to handle branch computerisation of the Eastern part of India and the brief to me was that if we have to computerise Eastern India, we have to make a breakthrough in Kolkata. The bank union had signed an agreement but was not allowing us to computerise operations. I went to Kolkata, but there were several issues and for four to five months we were not allowed to move an inch. So I took the top union leader with me for an Andaman & Nicobar tour. It took me six days to persuade him. Finally he said he would not support me, but he would not oppose me either. I would have to find my own way. I took on one branch at a time. It was an extremely difficult task initially. In the first branch the union leader said "computerisation will take place over my dead body." I said, I am not interested in your dead body, but you will have to allow the work to be done. It was extremely difficult… extremely difficult, but we persisted. By the time I was ready to leave (Kolkata), whenever I visited a branch the union secretary of that branch would seek a formal appointment and request me to computerise his branch.

ML: What was the positive impact they saw through computerisation? The work became easier?

Purwar: Yes. Work became very easy, everything was fed into the computers - interest application, book balancing, cash balancing, tallying ledgers etc., all this was taken over by machines and the staff had only to interact with their customers and do their work. I spent exactly 14 months there. By the time I left, the Bengal circle had become the number one circle in terms of computerisation. Then I was told to pack my bags and go to Tokyo. I spent three and a half years there.

ML: In public sector banks it is often said that promotions are based on the number of years in service and people complain that performance does not get due recognition. Obviously this doesn't happen with the achievers. How were you able to demonstrate leadership qualities?

Purwar: I would say it was during my stint as DGM (Deputy General Manager) Zonal office in Gauhati (NE). It was in 1989 and it was a very trying time. The entire North East was on the boil. And there were three factions --Assamese, Bengalis and tribals. As DGM it was my job to show that I was neutral, and I was with all of them. I did that job for two years, but when I took over an incident happened which I think allowed me to prove myself. One day, our people were not allowed to open a branch and were very badly beaten up. I managed to convey that unless we were given adequate protection, the branch would not function and we would simply close down. The union had planned a protest strike, but they realised that I had done everything they could possibly have demanded. We got the security we wanted and the branch opened. From that day whatever I said in the office became the law.

ML: Tell us about your Tokyo assignment. It was a difficult time in 1991 with the balance of payments crisis, wasn't it?

Purwar: Yes, but Tokyo was also very interesting. It gave me international exposure and I got an opportunity to learn how to operate in the international market and how the big sharks are floating around waiting for anyone to commit a mistake and take advantage of it. That is the time when there was the famous Korean deal and the bank made a cool $20 million. My boss was very happy. He said 'after what you have done you are entitled to choose any part of the world you want to go to'. In fact, he told me, if you were in the private sector, you would have been given a bonus of at least a million dollars.

ML: What was the Korean deal?

Purwar: At that time Korea was going through a big cash crunch they were selling all their assets to take care of that cash crunch. They were holding Indian financial paper. We purchased nearly $ 400 million of ONGC and Shipping Corporation paper at a 5.5 % discount and made a cool $20 million upfront. After Tokyo, I came back to set up the insurance business. Afterwards, I was posted to the Mumbai circle, the biggest business circle of the bank. I did a lot of work in Mumbai and introduced 7-day banking and 8 to 8 banking. That was in 1998-99 and SBI was the first bank to introduce it.

ML: When you were CGM (Chief General Manager in Mumbai), had you started planning - at least in your mind - what would be your agenda as chairman of SBI?

Purwar: Actually, by then it was fairly clear, even to me that one day I may become the Chairman. But before that, I took over as Managing Director of State Bank of Patiala and it became my laboratory for testing my ideas. There again I gave a lot of importance to computerisation. The bank had no business operating in a non-computerised environment, but here too there were union issues. But the rank and file was in favour of computerisation and supported it in a big way.

Business process re-engineering was another focus area. You know, this is a 200-year old institution and all the processes are time tested. To make any changes is very time consuming and has to be carefully done. I introduced a whole range of new products and State Bank of Patiala became the number one bank of the group. Profits had doubled and business had grown considerably.

ML: What were the goals when you came here as Chairman? After all, the whole business environment had changed and new private banks were providing tough competition.

Purwar: I was very clear that we must first convert this institution into a world class one. How do we go about it? We must first upgrade our technology and make it comparable to world standards. We must change our business processes, which are outdated. We must introduce a whole new range of products and services in different segments. Having worked in developed economies, I knew that 50 % of assets of the banking system are retail. My big focus was on people and HR processes. In a year and a half after I took over we computerised all our branches. As regards business processes, we engaged McKinsey & Co. and went after the introduction of world-class processes and best practices. We centralised credit processes in 83 cities and are now able to compete with the best in any part of the country. We upgraded and computerised the entire currency administration, upgraded the pension administration system, introduced core banking in 2700 branches and are centralising back-end processing in 300 cities.

The scale of work required is enormous. By way of comparison, ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank have just 500-600 branches in 150-200 cities while we have 13,700 branches. In terms of systems and technology, we have the same as they have - in fact we have the latest because we are more recent. We have the largest network of ATMs. The second largest ATM network is 1800 while we have 5500 plus. We need to modernise HR (Human Resources) practices and offer performance based incentives - only now, the government has permitted us to give our staff performance incentives.

So, we now have world-class technology, systems and processes, global best practices and a whole range of products in retail, agriculture, SME (small and medium enterprises), corporate segment and modern HR practices. How can anyone compete with us?

Let me give you an example of how the power of technology works. Suppose a company has a factory in Patna. Since our bank is on the core banking platform, I can collect all his cheques/funds in the entire country and give credit to the account, on-line, real time basis. Can any of the other banks do it across the country? The advantage of this for a unit is that instead of having its funds management department in Mumbai, which is expensive, they can shift this entire task to the factory and keep only one or two persons in Mumbai to make investment decisions. The savings to any company or businesses will be huge.

ML: How do you communicate this change to your own people and to the customers? One way is your advertising campaign, but what about your staff?

Purwar: Our relationship with our customers is the most important thing. When these new banks came up, our customers came up to us and said they would shift their collection accounts since we could not give them the same technology as the other banks. Some even started borrowing from those banks. We said okay, do it. Now we are telling all our customers that you have to come back and you have to have your collection accounts with SBI. This is happening all over SBI. If you ask me what is my biggest challenge today, I would say it is my people and how I treat them, re-skill and retool them. First, to enable them to handle the changed working conditions from manual banking to computerised banking to a core banking environment. I have to see that we are not stuck to old procedures and practices and I can tell you, the acceptability of this change in the institution has been huge. In fact, I often feel that even if I merely attempt something, they will think it is right. This puts a huge responsibility on me.

ML: Micro-finance and rural lending are also your main areas of interest, will you tell us about these?

Purwar: There are a couple of areas we have focused on. For example, I come from a village and I have seen things at very close quarters. This was one of the jobs I gave to McKinsey, how do we improve our agricultural lending. We created an agri-business unit in Mumbai and a part of the job was micro-finance, which has been my personal passion. Agriculture lending has grown by 40%. The Finance Minister had demanded that we must double our agriculture lending in three years. SBI has done it in two years. In micro finance, our market share was very negligible. Today we have a market share of 41%. We are emerging as the most important micro finance and agriculture lending institution in the country and in almost all States we are winning awards.

We are also working with NGOs because our recoveries are much higher when we work through them, rather than through the existing mechanism where leakage is very high. In agriculture lending, we are now financing the entire value chain in areas like contract farming.

ML: Can you give us examples that you are very proud of?

Purwar: In Baramati we have financed a dairy farm across the value chain. We financed the farmer, the dairy farm where the milk is collected and the place where the product is ultimately sold. We have financed farmers who supply sugarcane to Bajaj Hindustan in a very major way. Today we have over 100 contract farming arrangements all over the country. Our total exposure to contract farming was Rs 1092 crore as at Feb'06.  One example is Jain Irrigation at Jalgaon (Maharashtra) where our arrangement is on for two-and-a-half years and we finance farmers who supply vegetables.

ML: What are you doing in SME sector?

Purwar: We are financing schools and colleges. In all we have financed more than 1100 schools and colleges throughout the country lending over Rs 400 crore to NIIT, Microsoft, Oracle and others. We shall be lending around Rs 1000 crore to educational institutions for computer education alone.  In Healthcare, we have also financed 28,000 doctors in the last three years for their equipment, clinics and nursing homes.

ML: How do you market these loans? Is it through normal branch network?

Purwar: In the SME sector, an interesting thing we did, a year and a half ago, was to start a mid-corporate business unit in Mumbai. All the big branches where SME accounts were located were centralized and put under this. In fact, 80% of the best accounts in the mid corporate segment are with us.  It has become the biggest and the most profitable segment in the bank and covers units with a turnover of anywhere between Rs. 5 crores to 200 crores each.

ML: As a public sector bank you surely face political pressure, how do you deal with it?

Purwar: I would not say that there is no political pressure. It will be very foolish on my part to say that, but the SBI Chairman has always had a great degree of autonomy. There may be a few things here and there, but it is not significant. We still have the ability to say no… lets leave it at that. (laughs)

ML: SBI has always been seen as a banker to the nation, do you see any change in that status?

Purwar: No way, with the kind of technology platform we have set up and the linkages we have, I do not foresee any other organization being able to replicate it. You will see a SBI branch in any part of the country, be it Kashmir, Kanyakumari, Andhra Pradesh or the wildest of wild places. Our focus on agriculture, SME and retail is making even the small branches profitable. And with centralization of credit processes and greater accountability, the speed of decision-making - especially in 83 cities --has been expedited and credit quality has improved.

ML: As the Chairman what is the process by which you identify future Purwars?

Purwar: It is a very complex process, you have to keep interacting with the DMDs, CGMs and GMs; I visit various banking circles, listen to their presentations and see their performances. In SBI, succession is always from within; very rarely have people come from outside. I know my second and third line of succession well; they are in place and have the requisite experience and three to four years of service left. 

ML:  Looking back at your career and your chairmanship, what are the three things that have given you maximum satisfaction?

Purwar: The biggest satisfaction I got was in computerizing the entire State Bank Group, all the 13,847 branches are computerized at the rate of almost a 1000 branches a month. Many banks don't even have 1000 branches; sometimes we used camels and elephants to carry computers and equipment to remote branches. The second biggest source of satisfaction was the mid-corporate unit. This was absolutely against the advice of all my experts because it involved a complete break from the existing operational structure. My board was aghast when I proposed it, so we started with just a few branches in the Mumbai circle. Today, they are the biggest supporters of this process.

Another thing I am proud of is the international banking side. During my time we have acquired three banks overseas and expanded very significantly. We have 70 branches abroad and profits have grown from $ 20 million to $ 80 million. It was one area where my overseas experience was very useful. In Mauritius our acquisition of a bank had a lot of support in that country and the neighbouring ones.

ML: What is your advice to youngsters about a public sector bank career?

Purwar: Whatever you do, do it with passion, integrity and commitment.


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