Only a crossing of the recent high of 5,169 points will indicate that there is further steam left in the current rise in the months ahead
S&P Nifty close: 5,132.30
Short-term: Sideways; Medium-term: Downwards; Long-term: Sideways
The Nifty opened flat and rallied sharply this week to close the “downside gap” area between 5,059-5,109 points, thus mitigating the bearishness. The Nifty rose 244 points (+5.00%) on significantly higher volumes. The sectoral indices which outperformed the market were BSE IT (+8.73%), BSE Teck (+8.09%), BSE Bankex (+6.93%) and BSE CDS (+5.64%) while the ones which underperformed were BSE Healthcare (+0.95%), BSE CGS (+2.03%), BSE FCMG (+2.35%) and BSE Power.
The Histogram MACD has moved above the median line implying that the short-term trend is on the verge of turning up which could result in this corrective rise lasting for the next 4-6 weeks.
Here are some key levels to watch out for this week.
The bulls have put the ball back in the bears’ court and needn’t get worried as long as the “gap area” between 4,827-4,861 holds in any correction.
1. Support in declines will be provided by the “gap area” between 4,827-4,861 points.
2. The 5,169 level is the crucial resistance area to watch out for this week.
3. If the Nifty fails to cross this resistance level then we could see it correct down to 4,983; 4,934 or 4,886 points which will act as support.
4. If the Nifty succeeds in crossing the above-mentioned resistance, it will face a stiff hurdle in the downside “gap area” of 5,229-5,323 points.
As mentioned last week that “the high wave line” pattern gave an inkling that the market was readying itself for a trending move (which it did) which could last for a few weeks did materialise, though it did exceed our expectations by crossing the 5,044 points (R2) level. Only a crossing of the recent high of 5,169 points will indicate that there is further steam left in the current rise in the months ahead. Expect a kneejerk reaction in the beginning of this week which could be bought into provided we approach the support levels mentioned above. The crucial resistance area in the event of 5,169 points getting crossed is the 5,229-5,323 points range. The bulls can now breathe a sigh of relief as the onus is now on the bears to counter attack.
(Vidur Pendharkar works as a Consultant Technical Analyst & Chief Strategist, www.trend4casting.com).
For implementing the inclusive growth agenda, it is crucial to prop up agriculture, the soft underbelly of our economy. Here’s what can be done
Inclusive growth is an area that we have been talking about for a few years now, but integrating agriculture into the Indian economy has been rather difficult for many reasons. Agriculture continues to be the soft underbelly of the Indian economy and unless the millionsi involved in Indian agriculture are enabled to participate meaningfully in the growth process of the country, inclusive growth will remain an elusive dream in India. Let us make no mistake about that!
Part of the problem in pushing the inclusive growth agenda has been our inability to break down agriculture into concrete sub-areas that need to be tackled and devise cogent and specific action plans to tackle ground-level problems in these different areas. While large national flagship programs such as NRLMii and institutions like ICARiii , NABARDiv , CRIDAv etc., promise to tackle issues related to agriculture and rural livelihoods, much of this strategising happens either in general terms and/or lacks sufficient teeth for implementation. There is too much happening across institutions in terms of policy setting and programme design (particularly at the national level) but because ground-level implementation is left to state governments and/or other local bodies which lack the requisite expertise, infrastructure and perhaps even political/administrative will to implement these, there is no serious accountability in translating the well-intentioned policies into tangible action. This has indeed been a recurring theme over the last few decades, much to our dismay and that is why we keep having newer programmesvi similar to the NRLM (National Rural Livelihood Mission) over and over again.
Therefore, it is about time that programs like NRLM stop talking of generalities and focus on specific areas where tangible action is required and can be undertaken on the ground. In other words, we do not need a huge program like the NRLM just to build a whole network of SHGs (self-help groups) and related institutions. NRLM must become accountable to the Indian people and focus on rural livelihoods in areas that have the highest potential to include large numbers of people in a meaningful sense in the overall growth process. If the NRLM does that, it can surely usher in a golden era of inclusive growth that we have been talking about for almost seven years now, without a great deal of success.
So, where can the NRLM start? One such area is rain-fed (or dry-land) agriculture, obviously. “India ranks first among the countries that practice rain-fedvii agriculture both in terms of extent and value of production. Out of an estimated 140.3 million hectares (m ha) net cultivated area, 79.44 m ha (57%) is rain-fed , contributing 44% of the total food-grain production. It is estimated that even after achieving the full irrigation potential, nearly 50% of the net cultivated area will remain dependent on rainfall. Rain-fed agriculture supports nearly 40% of India’s estimated population of 1,210 million in 2011. While cultivation of coarse cereals, pulses, oilseeds and cotton predominate in these rain-fed regions, there are other crops as well. In the rain-fed areas, farmers’ dependence on livestock, besides arable farming, as an alternative source of income, is high. It is estimated that nearly two out of three heads of cattle population in India thrive in rain-fed regions. These data emphasise the crucial role played by rain-fed agriculture in India’s food security.”viii
Thus, while the strategic importance of dry-land agriculture cannot be ignored, its state in India is very precarious, to say the least. The multifaceted problems associated with rain-fed agriculture severely impoverish the rural communities and populations dependent on them. Specifically, several factors exacerbate the problems of vulnerability and rural poverty among such dry-land farmers: a) poor/low soil fertility; b) inappropriate soil/water management practices (that result in land degradation); c) lack of improved/suitable varieties to counter uncertainty and diversity in climatic conditions; d) devastating pest/disease attacks that finish off the crops and/or drastically reduce the yields; e) declining land-man ratio; and f) resource-poor rural communities (that are unable to meet even minimum standards of health, nutrition and hygiene).ix
That is not all. The vulnerability and poverty of these farmers dependent on rain-fed agriculture is further accentuated by low cropping intensity, high cost of cultivation, poor adoption of modern technology, low productivity and uncertainty in output, inadequate public investment in water/market/related infrastructure, lack of appropriate and quality institutional credit (post-harvest, especially), decreasing returns, increasing indebtedness and related factors. The net result of all of this is that these resource-poor farmers become poorer and vulnerable, with each passing day and have no other recourse than to end their lives dependent on fragile livelihoods—the suicides witnessed in Andhra Pradesh, Vidarbha (Maharashtra) and other states over the last few years are a manifestation of and testimony to their burgeoning helplessness.x
This being the case, and given the lofty objectives of NRLM (which is one of the flagship programmes of the present government), it seems only fair and appropriate for it to have a special focus on the fragile livelihoods of dry land (rain-fed) farming that supports nearly 480 million people in Indiaxi . And without doubt, the NRLM could play a crucial converging role in bringing together diverse stakeholders and creating synergies. For example, while many institutions have come out with suggestions and policy actions with regard to dry-land agriculture, ground-level implementation is dismal. Certainly, it is great to have research and innovate on strategies to tackle the problems associated with dry land agriculture, but this research must be transferred from “lab” to “land” in the real sense of the word and percolate to the grass-roots. And given its leverage with State governments, this is where the NRLM can offer strategic implementation guidance and help to converge all the existing efforts that attempt to tackle rain-fed agriculture.
Therefore, the NRLM, which is in its early implementation phase, must create a special component on dry-land agriculture and facilitate the various state governments to devise targeted time-bound programmes to tackle such rain-fed agriculture in an integrated and holistic fashion. Among other things, this would call for a strong emphasisxii on:
All of this calls for the adoption of a new (integrated) paradigm on rain-fed agriculture that can ensure proper management of natural resources and enhance the system’s overall productivity and effectiveness. This alone can reduce poverty without causing further degradation of the natural resource base and enable the participation of large numbers of dry land farmers in a meaningful and fair manner in India (inclusive) growth agenda. With a dynamic joint secretary at the helm of the NRLM and a proactive minister in charge of the Rural Development portfolio, the time cannot be more appropriate for true liberation of dry-land farming in India. Whether they will seize the initiative is a question that begs an answer but one that time only can tell.
iAn estimated 600 million are said to be dependent on agriculture
iiThe National Rural Livelihood Mission is one of India’s largest programs.
iiiIndian Council for Agricultural Research
ivNational Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development
vCentral Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture
viFrom IRDP to NRLM, there are have been many such initiatives in India, over the last few years!
viiAnon., Agricultural statistics at a glance. Ministry of Agriculture, New Delhi, 2009.
viiiCited from “Rain-fed agriculture could meet the challenges of food security in India” by K. D. Sharma
ixCompiled from several sources
xCompiled from several sources
xiAnon., Agricultural statistics at a glance. Ministry of Agriculture, New Delhi, 2009.
xiiCompiled from several sources
(The writer has over two decades of grassroots and institutional experience in rural finance, MSME development, agriculture and rural livelihood systems, rural/urban development and urban poverty alleviation/governance. He has worked extensively in Asia, Africa, North America and Europe with a wide range of stakeholders, from the private sector and academia to governments).
If the gains continue, the Nifty may touch 5,210
The market ignored weak domestic indicators and took support from the optimism expressed by European policymakers on helping regional banks in a bid to ease the debt crisis that is plaguing the continent. The market closed with gains of 5%, notching its best weekly performance in the last six weeks.
The market closed with good gains on Monday on across-the-board buying from institutional investors. However, it pared those gains and settled flat on Tuesday. Better-than-expected earnings from IT bellwether Infosys lifted the benchmarks on Wednesday.
A volatile trading session with food inflation staying above the 9% mark for the week ended 1st October saw the market closing lower on Thursday. Institutional buying in IT & technology sectors supported the upmove on Friday. Overall, the Sensex added 850 points to close the week at 17,083 and the Nifty settled at 5,132, up 244 points over the previous week. If the gains continue, the Nifty may touch 5,210.
All sectoral gauges closed higher in the week. BSE IT (up 9%) and BSE TECk (up 8% were at the top while BSE Capital Goods (up 2%) and BSE Healthcare (up 1%) ended at the bottom of the list.
The top Sensex gainers were Tata Motors (up 13%), Infosys, Jindal Steel & Power, Wipro (up 9% each) and Bajaj Auto (up 8%). On the flip side, Maruti Suzuki (down 8%) and Coal India (down 4%) were the losers on the index.
The Nifty was led by Tata Motors (up 13%), Infosys, Wipro, Reliance Infrastructure and Bajaj Auto (up 9% each). The major laggards on the index were Maruti Suzuki (down 8%), Coal India (down 4%), Ranbaxy Laboratories (down 3%) and BPCL (down 2%).
India’s headline inflation increased to 9.72% in September from 8.98% a year ago, raising prospects of yet another interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of India later this month. This is the 10th consecutive month when the rate of price rise has stayed above 9%.
Food inflation eased marginally for the week ended 1st October at 9.32%, but stayed above 9% for the third week in a row, as prices of vegetables, fruit and milk remained expensive, pinching the common man. Expressing disappointment, the finance minister said that it may affect the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth for the September quarter.
India’s industrial production grew by a dismal 4.1% in August as high interest rates and gloomy global indicators weighed on factory output. A disappointed finance minister Pranab Mukherjee said the numbers are “not encouraging... it may affect the GDP of the second (July-September) quarter.” For the first quarter, GDP growth was at an 18-month low of 7.7%.
The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) has significantly lowered the passenger car sales growth forecast for 2011-12 to 2%-4%, due to lower output at Maruti Suzuki because of labour issues, and higher lending rates.
SIAM had earlier revised the sales forecast for FY11-12 downwards for passenger cars at 10%-12% in July against 16%-18% announced at the beginning of the fiscal.
In international news, Standard & Poor’s has downgraded Spain’s credit rating, citing rising worries over sluggish growth and highlighting the vulnerability of the euro-zone’s bigger economies as the region tries to tackle its sovereign debt crisis.
In a related development, finance ministers and central bankers from the G20 economies are meeting in Paris with the debt crisis in Europe topping the agenda. Pressure mounted amid divisions over whether the euro-zone should take full responsibility for its escalating debt crisis, or whether the rest of the world should help out more.
China’s consumer price index (CPI) increased 6.1% from a year ago, but the number was down from the August reading of 6.2%. The latest inflation figures confirm that Beijing’s efforts to ease rising prices are bearing fruit, and reinforce predictions from market-watchers that the central bank’s tightening cycle is over.