Stocks
Bulls desperate for some support as trend firmly down

Bears continue to dominate as bulls desperately look to defend support levels. The trend is firmly down and rallies will meet with selling pressure

Market Trend  

Short Term: Down             Medium Term: Sideways     Long Term: Down

The Nifty opened lower and after a small recovery for a single session, the bears attacked with a vengeance as the Nifty sliced through the 50% retracement level (5,080 points) like hot knife through butter and also dipped below the 61.8% retracement level (4,950 points) with consummate ease on Friday, the last trading day of the week. Volumes were significantly higher during the decline as the Nifty ended 158 points lower (-3.11%) on relentless selling pressure.

The sectoral indices which outperformed were CNX FMCG (-1.85%), CNX Auto (-1.93%) and CNX MNC (-1.94%) while the gross underperformers were CNX PSU Bank (-6.37%), CNX IT (-4.42%), CNX Metal (-4.51%), CNX Realty (-4.37%) and CNX Pharma (-4.12%).  The weekly histogram MACD fell further below the median line indicating that the Bears are increasing their stranglehold on the market.
 
Here are some key levels to watch out for this week

■ As long as the S&P Nifty stays below 4,983 points (pivot) the bears hold the advantage as the bulls have till now been unable to defend key support levels.

■ Support levels in the declines are pegged at 4,848 and 4,768 points.

■ Resistance levels on the upside are pegged at 5,067 and 5,205 points.

Some Observations
1. The Nifty is facing stiff resistance in the 5,135-5,185 area which has to be taken out in close for the bulls to be shaken.

2. Weekly averages turned negative implying that the bears are consolidating their grip on the market.

3. For a very short-term reversal the previous week’s high (5,124 points) has to be crossed in close, otherwise the bears continue to rule the roost.

Strategy
The bears continued to dominate through the week as they broke key support retracement levels. Unless and until the bulls are able to push the Nifty above the 5,135-5,185 points area in close the bears continue to be in control. Support is pegged around current levels or else around the 4,768 points level. Bears continue to dominate as bulls desperately look to defend support levels. The trend is firmly down and rallies will meet with selling pressure.

(Vidur Pendharkar works as a consultant technical analyst & chief strategist at www.trend4casting.com)
 

User

SEBI warns USE against monitoring lapses

SEBI while reviewing trading volumes across all currency trading platforms had noticed concentration of large trades and volumes, mostly by two trading members, at USE

Mumbai: Market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has warned the United Stock Exchange of India (USE) against monitoring lapses that led to concentration of currency trading in two entities, but did not impose any financial penalty on the bourse, reports PTI.

SEBI while reviewing trading volumes across all currency trading platforms had noticed concentration of large trades and volumes, mostly by two trading members, at USE.

“It was observed that one of these two trading members had accounted for about 77%-80% of the total turnover,” it said.

Finding USE “negligent to certain extent” in the discharge of its functions and duties, the SEBI order said: “... while dealing with matters concerned with discharge of regulatory functions, there would be a few occasions where monetary penalty would be appropriate ... given the nature of the lapses and the efforts made (in USE’s case) ... penalty of warning would be appropriate in this case.

Earlier, SEBI had issued a show cause notice in December last year to the USE. In the notice it was alleged “that there was absence of robust surveillance system at USE, to monitor the trend of domination of trade or artificial boosting of exchange volumes by one trading member”.

USE in its reply had admitted that it had detected the concentration of the trades and that the same was reported to the erstwhile managing director and CEO TS Narayanasami.

However, the USE had said that as there was no evidence of any manipulative trading patterns considering the fact that concentration of trades is a usual occurrence for any exchange in its initial stages, the same was not acted upon by Mr Narayanasami.

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Govt disburses Rs4.76 lakh crore farm credit in FY11-12

“The target of credit flow of the year 2011-12 had been fixed at Rs4.75 lakh crore and as per the provisional figures reported by NABARD, the achievement as on 31 March 2012 is Rs4,76,550 crore,” minister of state for agriculture Harish Rawat said in a written reply to the Rajya Sabha

New Delhi: The government disbursed Rs4.76 lakh crore as agricultural credit during the last fiscal against the target of Rs4.75 lakh crore, reports PTI.

“The target of credit flow of the year 2011-12 had been fixed at Rs4.75 lakh crore and as per the provisional figures reported by NABARD, the achievement as on 31 March 2012 is Rs4,76,550 crore,” minister of state for agriculture Harish Rawat said in a written reply to the Rajya Sabha.

The government has set a target of credit flow for the 2012-13 fiscal at Rs5.75 lakh crore, he added.

The flow of farm credit has increased from Rs2.29 lakh crore in 2006-07 to Rs4.68 lakh crore in 2010-11, the minister said.

The government in order to encourage farmers to avail institutional credit facilities provides crop loans of Rs3 lakh with an interest of 4% per annum, provided the farmer repays the loan as per the repayment schedule fixed by the banks, Mr Rawat added.

It has also started extension of benefit of interest subvention scheme to small and marginal farmers having Kisan Credit Card for a further period of six months for storing their produce in warehouses against negotiable warehouse receipts, he said.

The government also provides a collateral-free loan of up to Rs1 lakh to farmers, he added.

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