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Bollywood Box Office Unplugged-II: Winners and losers among the 2012 releases

Who were the Survivors (the workhorses), Fakestars (work for the industry too but not so much for the audience), Rockstars, (as they are low-budget winners) and the duds for the fist half of 2012 


In the first six months of 2012, 35 Hindi films were released, of which 33 reported their box office (BO) numbers and the remaining probably sank without a trace. As we pointed out in the first part, the frenzied hype that accompanies a movie’s release is purely commercial. Influencing reviews to get better ratings is a part of this. Let’s see how it works.


We analysed the movie ratings of as many as 33 reviewers for each movie. We then looked at the drop in BO business from the first week to the second as an indicator of public verdict. We then included a third dimension of total movie business to build a complete perspective on the movie in a single snapshot. (See graph: Jan-Jun 2012: Business, Reviews, People’s verdict) There is a whole alternate business revenue stream of music rights, satellite rights, merchandizing agreements, in-film advertising that is not the subject of this analysis.


We then classified the whole set. The Rockstars are those that were high on reviewers’ and peoples’ choice—they received high ratings and also sustained business in the second week (see graph). The Survivors are movies that received average ratings but survive to retain the audience interest and do not drop more than a third in the second week. The Duds are movies that simply fail to take off with both viewers and reviewers. And finally there are the Fakestars—which generate huge BO business in the first week, only to crash over 70% in the second week. These are over-hyped movies and, but a curious co-incidence, their names provide clues to this category. 



The viewers guide to the categories: Rockstars, Survivors, Fakestars and Duds


In terms of business for the entire industry, Survivors are the workhorses—they are not stars though, not high on critics list, but just good for an average laugh by the masses. Fakestars work for the industry too but not so much for the audience. Rockstars, especially as they are low-budget, are the ones we could do with more of. Duds—let us not waste time on them. 



Good, large production houses play safe with big movies to ensure they are Survivors—big bankable stars, tested formula, item songs, prime release dates, zero or low competition from other movies, secured by marketing, etc—all this often prevents them from being Duds by just a whisker.


The distribution channels



Based on channel structure, ownership, market size, local issues and movie-related factors there is a full treatise possible on territory level insights. We restrict our focus to the BO (Pie chart: Collections: Jan-Jun 2012), but even a quick glance shows heavy dependence on just two key regions in terms of revenues.


Corporate entry into Bollywood was expected to bring in such professionalism. It has indeed cured some ills but has also introduced others. We need introspection on how to connect the dots to create win-win movies. What good is a good Bollywood movie without a sequel?


In concluding part we look at movie reviewers and their performance. Which ones understand popular choice of movies and who are the ones that take viewers for a ride? Watch for the details.

(Sandeep Khurana is the founder and principal consultant, QuantLeap Consulting services, based at Hyderabad. An ex-army officer, he is well-read and experienced in government and corporate sectors. Sandeep holds a management degree from Indian School of Business. He has interest in social media, analytics and operations. He likes to watch all good movies. He can be reached at [email protected] or his twitter id is @IQnEQ.)




4 years ago

excellent observation.

CII and E&Y report on the insurance industry: Challenges, reforms and realignment

The CII and E&Y report offers steps to reform the insurance industry—revisit TPA agreements, implement better controls to prevent frauds and product design to protect policyholders 

Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) and Ernst & Young (E&Y) report on the insurance industry details the challenges and reforms that can help alleviate the different issues plaguing the industry. Insurers need to strengthen their risk assessment and underwriting mechanisms. The claims and fraud monitoring process also needs to be simplified, strengthened by stricter guidelines for third party administrators (TPAs), says the report. Despite strong growth, the non-life segment also faces stiff challenges in distribution, pricing and claims management and these issues need to be addressed on a priority to sustain the growth. Here are important details from the report: 
Reduce inefficiencies by revisiting the TPA agreements
TPA claims administration involves a lot of inefficiencies including improper dissemination of information, lack of motivation to control claims, minimal scrutiny of claims, and tying up with hospitals and service providers to inflate claims value. The Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (IRDA) is proposing to implement a standardized format of service agreements to bring down inefficiencies. It is also considering banning services of TPAs from operating as intermediaries for government-sponsored health insurance schemes to ensure orderly growth of the industry.
Considering the inefficiencies in TPA services, fraudulent activities, increasing customer complaints against TPAs and regulatory stand against TPAs, insurers will need to revisit the service contracts with TPAs. In certain cases, there may be a need to reconsider their services to ensure high operational efficiency, fraud control and better customer service.
High claims ratio for health insurance during the year is attributed to:
•   Low pricing of group health covers on account of high bargaining power of corporate organizations
•   Non-standard rates of treatment due to absence of supplier (hospital) management (regulator)
•   Frequent frauds
IRDA is expected to implement standardized rates for certain procedures and modify the claims management process for health insurance. This will help reduce the claims ratio further.
Better controls to prevent frauds
According to the E&Y survey on frauds in insurance, the Indian insurance sector incurs a loss of more than 8% of its total revenue collection in a fiscal year. Further, the study indicates that the average ticket size of a single fraud ranges between Rs25,000 and Rs75,000. Increase in frauds indirectly drives up the premiums collected from policyholders as insurers ultimately recover the losses by increasing the prices. 
According to a survey by Star Health Insurance Pvt Ltd, the health insurance industry in India loses approximately 15% amounting to Rs6–Rs8 billion per annum on account of fraudulent claims. Fraudulent and dishonest claims are a major hazard not only for the insurance industry but also for the entire nation’s economy. Concrete proof as evidence including documentation, statements made by the customer and his family members and even neighbours are taken into consideration. 
In order to reduce fraudulent claims, IRDA has mandated sharing of claims data and even blacklisting ‘tainted’ hospitals with a history of submitting inflated bills. Health insurers need to set up a detailed anti-fraud department to develop and implement a detailed program to combat frauds. Some insurers have put in place additional checks such as visiting the hospital during the insured’s stay or  even his house to examine the case papers to prevent fraudulent claims. Insurers need to adopt a definite methodology to address and reduce risk of frauds within it.
Agent compensation 
There are numerous compensation-related challenges for insurers impacting the efficiency of their distribution models to deliver on objectives. Specific to tied agents, the compensation framework does not provide for treating a tenured and high-performing agent as different from others and allow payment of higher commission rates or support allowances to encourage such agents. Also, there is no mechanism, which allows compensation to an individual agent for any other services rendered by him to the insurer. Further, the regulatory compensation structure does not differentiate between a retail agent and an organized distributor such as a corporate agent or a broker. They are paid similar commissions. In addition, the commission rate decreases after 10 years of existence of an insurer, which imposes further burdens.
Products, Strategy and design
At a time when the highest NAV (net asset value) guaranteed ULIP (unit linked insurance product) were selling aggressively in the market, IRDA banned the product in order to keep a tab on life insurers resorting to riskier fund management to conform to their commitment of guaranteed returns. Not only did these products attract an increased premium, but they also offered little protection to policyholders. According to IRDA officials, “In most of these products, customers are being lured with the promise of a decent maturity benefit, but in case of claims (in the event of death), the benefits or the amounts are sometimes lower than the premiums. The basic underlying principle of a life insurance policy is it should have sufficient life risk cover”. The regulator is keen to oversee the product design more closely to better protect policyholders falling prey to ‘low’ or ‘insignificant’ life risk covers. The challenge for insurers, therefore, is to develop innovative products without crossing the boundaries of insurability.
Quick and frequent changes in regulations disrupt the business models of the insurers. The industry should be given time to adjust to regulatory changes in a phased manner aligned with a regulatory impact assessment. Regulations need to drive transparency and simplification of products and services. Insurance being a long-term product, customer servicing also becomes important as the individual claiming the benefits may be different from the individual buying the product. The regulator also needs to drive financial education and awareness about insurance products to create a customer pull. 
Currently a majority of sales is accounted for by the tax incentives rather than any demand for insurance products. Increasing awareness and understanding the need and utility of insurance will drive growth in the industry in the long run. 
For the first time, since the industry was liberalized and opened to private and foreign insurers, the life insurance segment witnessed a year-on-year decline (around 10%) in the first year premium collected. The non-life segment is still struggling with underwriting losses while health insurance is facing high claims ratio and inefficiencies in policy administration.
The non-life premium underwritten grew by 23% in FY12, reaching Rs530 billion from Rs430 billion in FY11, but the segment is saddled with considerable underwriting losses and pricing issues in addition to high claims ratio exerting increasing pressure on profitability. 
In case of group health cover, claims ratio decreased in FY11 mainly on account of revision of prices in the overall industry (16%–20%), reducing losses to around 100% from 120%. In case of individual cover, the loss ratio was around 80% in FY11 due to some revision in prices. For government schemes, the loss ratio varied from state to state and was in the range of 60% to 120%.


Sensex, Nifty to witness range-bound movement: Monday Closing Report

Positive global cues boost the indices

The market closed higher on firm global cues and sustained buying in blue chips. The benchmark may see range-bound movement before a correction sets in. The National Stock Exchange (NSE) saw a lower volume of 50.16 crore shares. Bulls don’t have much of a conviction at the current levels.
The market witnessed a gap up opening on positive global cues. Markets in Asia were higher in morning trade on the back of better-than-expected US payroll data and easing of concerns relating to the Eurozone debt crisis. The Nifty opened 45 points higher at 5,261 and the Sensex started the day at 17,313, a gain of 115 points over its previous close.
Private sector oil and gas major Reliance Industries (RIL) was the top gainer on the Sensex and Nifty on reports that the company has agreed to share accounting information relating to the KG D6 gas block, under the terms of the production sharing contract, with the national auditor. The oil ministry is also expected to the company’s annual investment plans for the gas block, which were pending for the past two years.
The market gave up a small part of its gains in noon trade on profit booking. However, the upmove continued after a brief pause as the European markets were in the green on optimism from the European Central Bank, which reiterated its willingness to resolve the Eurozone crisis.
The benchmarks hit their highs in the post-noon session on sustained buying in blue chips. At the highs, the Nifty rose to 5,293 and the Sensex surged to 17,452.
The market closed off the high, snapping its two-day losing streak. The Nifty gained 67 points (1.28%) to settle at 5,283 and the Sensex climbed 215 points (1.25%) to finish trade at 17,413.
The advance-decline ratio on the NSE was negative at 926:563.
Among the broader markets, the BSE Mid-cap index gained 0.53% and the BSE Small-cap index climbed 0.79%.
In the sectoral space, BSE Oil & Gas (up 3.03%); BSE Auto (up 1.70%); BSE Bankex (up 1.38%); BSE Capital Goods (up 1.37%) and BSE Realty (up 1.24%), were the top gainers. On the other hand, BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods (down 0.37%); BSE IT (down 0.12%) and BSE TECk (down 0.09%) were the losers.
The key gainers on the Sensex were Reliance Industries (up 5.71%); Tata Motors (up 3.51%); GAIL India (up 2.49%); HDFC Bank (up 1.95%) and Tata Steel (up 1.85%). Dr Reddy’s Laboratories (down 0.86%); TCS (down 0.69%); Wipro (down 0.59%); NTPC (down 0.54%) and ITC (down 0.42%) were the main losers.
The top two A Group gainers on the BSE were—RIL (up 5.71%) and Rural Electrification Corporation (up 5.25%).
The top two A Group losers on the BSE were—Britannia Industries (down 2.95%) and Godrej Consumer Products (down 2.78%).
The top two B Group gainers on the BSE were—Winsome Textiles (up 20%) and Reliance MediaWorks (up 20%).
The top two B Group losers on the BSE were—Tricom Fruit Products (down 19.88%) and Venus Power Ventures (down 19.80%).
The top performers on the Nifty were RIL (up 5.51%); Tata Motors (up 3.67%); Jaiprakash Associates (up 3.07%); GAIL (up 2.74%) and Kotak Mahindra Bank (up 2.36%). The top laggards on the index were BPCL (down 3.02%); Wipro (down 0.94%); Dr Reddy’s (down 0.92%); TCS (down 0.88%) and ITC (down 0.62%).
Markets in Asia settled in the green on positive data from the US and assurance that European leaders would work towards easing the debt problems in the continent. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s gross domestic product growth in the June quarter was 6.4% from a year earlier against 6.3% in the first quarter, helped by domestic consumption and investment. After China, Indonesia’s growth is also the highest among the world’s leading emerging economies.
The Shanghai Composite advanced 1.04%; the Hang Seng surged 1.69%; the Jakarta Composite rose 0.14%; the KLSE Composite gained 0.27%; the Nikkei 225 jumped 2%; the Seoul Composite climbed 2.01% and the Taiwan Weighted settled 0.95% higher.
At the time of writing, key European indices were up between 0.20% and 0.63% and the US stock futures were trading with marginal gains.
Back home, foreign institutional investors were net buyers of shares totalling Rs208.69 crore on Friday while domestic institutional investors were net sellers of equities amounting to Rs434.64 crore.
Engineers India (EIL) today said it has bagged a project management consultancy contract from the 2,000 km Mallavaram-Bhopal-Bhilwara-Vijaipur natural gas pipeline project. GSPL India Transco, the Gandhinagar-based firm which would be implementing the project, has awarded the project management consultancy services contract to EIL, the state-owned firm said in a statement. EIL gained 0.19% to settle at Rs237.80 on the NSE.
Sadbhav Engineering has informed the BSE that it has been declared successful bidder for five projects totalling Rs378.28 crore by Sardar Sarovar Narmada Nigam, Gujarat. The contracts are for construction of canal and allied works, including operation and maintenance. The stock gained 1.66% to close at Rs134.85 on the NSE.
Bhushan Steel hopes to sign a memorandum of understanding with the Odisha government in the current quarter, which will enable the company mining 3.5 million tonnes of iron ore a year for its new steel projects. The company is building a 2.5 million tonne steel plant which is expected to get commissioned in the third quarter of this year. The stock gained 0.33% to settle at Rs471.70 on the NSE.


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