Private banks are expected to show sharper earnings slowdown in FY2012-14 as credit costs start to rise, especially on infrastructure loans, says Kotak Institutional Equities
Banks are expected to face some rough weather in the immediate financial year FY2012-14, according to a brokerage report from Kotak Institutional Equities. Banks' earnings growth is expected to remain subdued at 12% CAGR for FY2012-14. The brokerage report estimates that there are likely to be slippages at 2.4% for FY2012-14. Further, credit costs are expected to remain high at 1.2-1.4% level for the sector in the medium term, especially with new regulations on dynamic provisions.
The brokerage report expects that select private banks will show a sharper earnings slowdown in FY2012-14 as credit costs rise, especially on infrastructure exposure and gradual rise in slippages in the retail portfolio. On the other hand, public banks are likely to deliver 11% earnings growth (less than10% excluding SBI). Pre-provisioning operating profit (PPoP) is likely to increase by 13% CAGR for FY2012-14 with public banks growing at 11% and private banks growing at 19% CAGR.
RoEs (Return on Equity) for public banks are likely to be at 17% for FY2012-14, while private banks would deliver RoEs in the range of 14-15%. The key risk remains the delay in addressing infrastructure bottlenecks that would impede loan growth. This would increase balance sheet risk for banks.
According to the Kotak report, banks with large retail portfolio are unlikely to see serious deterioration but are expected to increase from current low levels, as growth is steadily slowing and real income levels are showing signs of stagnation. The report anticipates the following factors to play a role in the banking sector: (a) higher-than-normal slippage trends for FY2012-14, (b) restructuring of banks to continue and (c) dynamic provisions are to come into effect.
The brokerage report also predicts that concerns on balance sheet would remain focused on infrastructure exposure and balance sheets would be excessively leveraged on certain large corporate entities. Recovery trends have improved on small-ticket loans, although banks chose to write off higher loans where there were difficulties.
Apart from these predictions, the Kotak report has also reviewed the performance in banks in the fourth quarter of financial year FY2012. The quarter showed some positive improvement on key operating metrics. High interest has continued to impact earnings but companies have been able to push through prices resulting in improvement of profitability and interest coverage ratios. A trend is yet to emerge but we believe that banks carry significant risk outside this portfolio through infrastructure and select large corporate exposure, which is a key risk to earnings.
Credit costs for the quarter remained high on the back of higher provisions for restructured loans and write-off. The outlook on asset quality performance remained cautious despite improvement witnessed in the current quarter as growth continues to remain a challenge, there is an inability to address problems in the power sector, which is posing significant risk to banks' balance sheet, and select corporate houses like Kingfisher have reasonably stretched financials.
PMO said Coal India should appoint mine developer and operators to begin production from these deallocated coal blocks without further delay
New Delhi: The Prime Minister's Office (PMO) has asked the Coal Ministry to fast-track the process of taking back the coal blocks from private firms which have not developed them and giving the deallocated coal mines to Coal India (CIL), reports PTI.
"Recently, the PMO has asked to expedite the process of coal blocks deallocation and give the deallocated blocks to Coal India," an official with the Coal Ministry privy to the development told PTI.
Also, the PMO has said the CIL should appoint mine developer and operators (MDOs) to begin production from these deallocated coal blocks without delay, the official said.
The Coal Ministry had recently allotted 116 mines to CIL for expansion to help it boost production capacity amid the PSU drawing flak for coal shortage across the country.
Though the CIL had asked for 138 mines, the Coal Ministry asked the coal major to recast its plans.
Since CIL is a government-owned company, the Coal Ministry under the government dispensation route has the right to allocate mines to the CIL, an official in the Ministry had said earlier.
Coming down heavily on the private companies delaying the development of coal blocks allocated to them for captive use, the government had recently issued show-cause notices to 58 coal block allottees which have delayed the production from the mines.
The notices were issued to firms such as Reliance Power's Sasan, Tata Power, Hindalco, Grasim Industries, JSW, Bhushan Steel, TVNL, Jharkhand State Mineral Development Corporation and Chhattisgarh Mineral Development Corporation, among others.
The notices sought reasons for delay in developing blocks and warned them of cancellation of mines if no explanation was given in 20 days.
Tata Sons, the promoter of all key companies of the Tata Group, had acquired 4.8 crore shares in IHCL for about Rs497.47 crore through preferential allotment
New Delhi: The Indian Hotels Company Ltd (IHCL) on Wednesday said Tata Sons Ltd has increased stake in it by 4.78% to 24.36% at an investment of Rs497.47 crore, reports PTI.
IHCL and its subsidiaries are collectively known as Taj Hotels Resorts and Palaces.
Tata Sons, the promoter of all key companies of the Tata Group, had acquired 4.8 crore shares in IHCL for about Rs497.47 crore through preferential allotment on 22nd June this year, the company said in a filing to BSE.
Before the transaction, Tata Sons held 19.58% stake in IHCL, the filing added.
The Taj Hotels Resorts and Palaces currently has 93 hotels in 55 locations across India with an additional 16 international hotels in the Maldives, Malaysia, Australia, UK, USA, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Africa and the Middle East.
Shares of Indian Hotels Company Ltd today closed at Rs58.85 per scrip on BSE, down 0.76% from its previous close.