According to Nomura’s dealer checks, customer enquiries and footfalls have increased post price cuts around the third week of February, which may lead to some volume surprise
The recent price cuts in the auto industry to pass on benefits of lower excise duties across segments may lead to some volume surprise as there is a significant increase in customer enquiries, says Nomura.
In a research report, Nomura says, this (the price cuts) may lead to higher dispatches from original equipment manufacturer (OEMs) and could lead to some positive surprise to its estimates.
Nomura estimates car industry volumes to remain flattish in February due to the weak base as February 2013 volumes declined by 25% from previous year. "We think weakness in the commercial vehicle industry will persist; we estimate about 20% fall in medium and heavy commercial vehicle (MHCV) volumes and around 25% decline in light commercial vehicle (LCV) segment volumes. According to our calculations, two-wheeler industry volumes are likely to see about 15% growth, largely led by the strong performance by Honda Motorcycles (HMSI) and partly due to the weak base (volumes were down 3% in February 2013). We expect growth momentum in the tractor segment to sustain and estimate around 8% volume growth for Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) in February 2014," it said.
A new short downtrend has started. Watch for a close above any previous day's high, for the first sign of a reversal of the downtrend
We had mentioned in Friday’s closing report that a close below 6,215 on the Nifty may reverse the rising trend. Today the market had a weak opening following troubles in Ukraine. Although Sensex managed to barely cross Friday closing for a little while, the Nifty couldn’t even reach up to the Friday’s close. The indices after hitting the intra day high witnessed sideways move for a little while but soon moved down.
Market sentiments were not only affected by geopolitical tension over Ukraine but also because of an official gauge of Chinese manufacturing dropped to an eight-month low.
The BSE-30 share Sensex opened at 21,079 while NSE Nifty opened at 6,264. Sensex moved to the level of 20,921 after hitting a high of 21,140 while Nifty moved down to the level 6,212 before which it hit a high of 6,278. Sensex closed at 20,947 (down 173 points or 0.82%) while Nifty closed at 6,221 (down 56 points or 0.88%). The NSE recorded a lower volume of 55.34 crore shares.
As per the data released by the Central Statistics Office, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, the quarterly GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices for Q3 of 2013-14 is estimated at Rs14.8 lakh crore, as against Rs14.1 lakh crore in Q3 of 2012-13, showing a growth rate of 4.7% over the corresponding quarter of previous year.
The Eight Core Industries having a combined weight of 37.90% in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) increased by 1.6% in January 2014 compared with a growth of 8.3% growth in January 2013 and 2.1% growth in December 2013.
The Indian manufacturing economy showed signs of strengthening in February, with faster increases in output and new orders bolstering the PMI to reach a one-year peak. New export business also rose at a quicker clip, Markit Economics said. Up from 51.4 in the previous month to 52.5 in February, the headline HSBC India Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) signalled a solid and stronger improvement in business conditions across the country's goods-producing sector, Markit Economics said.
Consumer goods came out again to be the best performing sub-sector of the manufacturing economy in February, leading the rises in both output and new orders. Input cost inflation quickened to its highest in four months during February. New orders increased for the fourth month running and at the most pronounced rate, since February 2013.
US indices had a flat ending with a negative bias on Friday.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose to 59.8 in February, topping expectations, while the final February reading on consumer sentiment from the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers also rose more than expected.
US gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualised rate of 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2013, down from an initial estimate of 3.2%. The revision is down to weaker than expected consumer spending.
Except for Shanghai Composite (up 0.92%) and NZSE 50 (up 0.35%) all the other Asian indices closed in the red. Hang Seng (1.47%) was the top loser.
China's Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 50.2 in February compared with January's 50.5 reading, the lowest since June, the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing said March 1 in Beijing. A private gauge released today showed manufacturing contracting for a second month in February.
Russia's central bank unexpectedly raised its policy interest rate sharply to 7% from 5.5% previously, effective Monday morning. "The decision is meant to avoid emerging risks to inflation and financial stability associated with the recently seen increased volatility on the financial markets," the central bank said in a statement. The central bank described the move as "temporary".
European indices were trading lower while US Futures were deeply in the red.
Ketan Parekh, namesake of the former tainted stockbroker, was convicted and sentenced to two years in jail in a case of debenture fraud, committed more than two decades ago
Ketan Manharlal Parekh (namesake of tainted stock broker Ketan Parekh or KP), an accused in several cases of stock market manipulation, has been convicted by a special Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) court in Mumbai for cheating Bank of Baroda and sentenced him to two years rigorous imprisonment.
"The Special Judge for CBI cases Mumbai has convicted Ketan Manharlal Parekh and sentenced him to undergo two years rigorous imprisonment with total fine of Rs50,000," a CBI spokesperson told the media.
The court, however, acquitted a bank manager and other public officials in the case.
The case relates to cheating committed by Parekh in alleged criminal conspiracy with the then senior manager of non-resident Indian (NRI) cell and in charge of safe custody department, Bank of Baroda, Mumbai, and others.
"It was alleged that the accused had abused their official position while functioning as such during 1989-1991 and conspired with Parekh," CBI said.
The spokesperson said CBI had charged the accused with cheating Bank of Baroda, Sir PM Road Branch, Mumbai, by obtaining the duplicate debentures in lieu of originals and by pledging the original debentures of a leading private company in the name of two NRIs which were purportedly lost from Safe Custody Department, Bank of Baroda, Mumbai Main office.
Loans facilities were then availed in the name of four associate firms of Parekh from Bank of Baroda, thereby causing loss to Bank of Baroda, the spokesperson said.
CBI filed the charge sheet 14 years ago in the Special CBI Court for criminal conspiracy, criminal breach of trust by public servant and cheating besides provisions of Prevention of Corruption Act against the four accused persons.
The court acquitted three other accused public servants while Parekh was convicted.