As per the report of the TAG-UP Committee headed by Nandan Nilekani, government data and databases would be privatised through the creation of NIUs, which will then ‘own’ the data and the government would become a ‘customer’ to whoever controls the data!
It is no secret that data is the new property. The potential for evolving technologies to record, collate, converge, retrieve, mine, share, profile and otherwise conjure with data has given life to this form of property, and to spiralling ambitions around it. The Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI) was set up with its push to enrol the entire Indian resident population, and with Nandan Nilekani as both its chairman and as chair of committees set up by Dr Manmohan Singh’s government. In this set-up, we are witnessing the emergence of an information infrastructure, which the government helps—by financing and facilitating the ‘start-up’, and by the use of coercion to get people on to the database—which it will then hand over to corporate interests when it reaches a ‘steady state’.
Since Mr Nilekani was appointed the chairperson of the UIDAI, in the rank of a Cabinet minister, he has chaired multiple committees, each of which pushes for the collection of data and the creation of databases, and steers the government to become a customer of whoever controls the database. Several reports on e-governance as part of the report of the National Knowledge Commission: Report to the Nation 2006-2009 as well as Report of the Committee for Unified Toll Collection Technology (June 2010), the National e-governance plan (November 2011, Background Papers), Interim Report of the Task Force on direct transfer of subsidies on kerosene (June 2011), LPG and fertiliser’ Report of the Task Force on IT Strategy and an implementable solution for the direct transfer of subsidy for food and kerosene (October 2011: Final report), Report of the Task Force on an Aadhaar-enabled unified payment infrastructure (February 2012), and, of course, the TAG-UP report, are testimony to how Mr Nilekani has been used to promote a set of database-related ambitions.
It was in the January 2011 report of the Nilekani-chaired Technology Advisory Group on Unique Projects (TAG-UP) that the framework for the private ownership of databases was elaborated and explained. These were about databases constructed out of data that is given to the government to hold in a fiduciary capacity, and expected to be used for specified, and limited, purposes. The Nilekani Committee report directly dealt with five projects—Goods and Services Tax Network (GSTN), Tax Information Network (TIN), Expenditure Information Network (EIN), National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA) and the New Pension System (NPS). It recommended that the suggested framework “be more generally applicable to the complex IT-intensive systems, which are increasingly coming to prominence in the craft of Indian public administration”.
As the Nilekani Committee understood it, the government has two major tasks: policymaking and implementation. Implementation is fettered by absence of leadership and active ownership of projects, outdated recruitment processes and methodology, inability to pay market salaries for specialised skills, lack of avenues for continued enhancement of professional skills and career growth, non-conducive work environment, outdated performance evaluation and preference for seniority over merit, and untimely transfer of officers. Rather than expend time on finding correctives to the system, the Nilekani committee found in this an opportunity for private business interest. Without further ado, and without considering, for instance the capacities and deficiencies in privatising databases, and what this means for citizens and residents, the Nilekani committee found its answer in National Information Utilities (NIUs).
“NIUs would be private companies with a public purpose: profit-making, not-profit maximising”. The government would have “strategic control”, that is, it would be focussed on how it would achieve the objectives and outcomes, leaving the NIU ‘flexible’ in its functioning. Total private ownership should be at least 51%. The government should have at least 26% share. Once it reaches a steady state, the government would be a “paying customer” and, as a paying customer, “the government would be free to take its business to another NIU”. Except, of course, given the “large upfront sunk-cost, economies of scale, and network externalities from a surrounding ecosystem (and what this means is not explained any further), NIUs are ... essentially set up as natural monopolies”.
The Nilekani Committee evinces a deep disinterest in the various rungs of government. It asks for the “total support and involvement of the top management within the government” -- words reflecting the UIDAI’s experience, with the Prime Minister and Montek Singh Ahluwalia being its staunch supporters, and much of the rest of the administration seemingly unclear about what the project entails. To get a buy-in from the bureaucracy, “in-service officers” are to be deployed in the NIUs and are to be given an allowance of 30% of their remuneration.
“Once the rollout is completed,” the Nilekani committee says, “the government’s role shifts to that of a customer.”
On the question of open source, the Nilekani committee “recognises the intellectual property of the NIU”, but considers that it may be counterproductive to the business planning and profitability of the NIU to release all source as open source.
The report is littered with references to the UIDAI, and suggests that the way the UIDAI has been functioning is what an NIU should use as its model.
What emerges is this:
• Governmental data and databases are to be privatised through the creation of NIUs, which will then `own’ the data;
• NIUs will be natural monopolies;
• NIUs will use the data and the database to be profit-making and not profit-maximising, and the definition of these terms may, of course, vary;
• Government will support the NIUs through funding them till they reach a steady state, and by doing what is needed to gather the data and create the database using governmental authority;
• Once the NIU reaches steady state, the government will reappear as the customer of the NIU;
• Government officers will be deployed in NIUs and be paid 30% over their salaries, which, even if the report does not say it explicitly, is expected to forge loyalties and vested interests;
• The notion of holding citizens’ data in a fiduciary capacity cedes place to the vesting of ownership over citizens’ data in an entity which will then have the government as their customer.
This notion of private companies owning our data has not been discussed with state governments, nor with people from whom information is being collected. This might have been treated as another report without a future; except, in the budget presented by Pranab Mukherjee as finance minister in March 2012, he announced that the “GSTN (Goods and Sales Tax Network) will be set up as a National Information Utility”.
The NIU was not explained to Parliament, and no one seems to have raised any questions about what it is. This, then, is the story of how the ownership of governmental data by private entities is silently slipping into the system.
(Dr Usha Ramanathan is an independent law researcher on jurisprudence, poverty and rights.)
While high inventory remains a concern in the near term, it is expected that zinc prices will improve to $2,000-$2,100/tonne owing to zinc turning to a balanced supply market, says Nomura Equity Research
Volume growth along with cost optimization provides earnings visibility, says Nomura in its research report on Hindustan Zinc. At the same time, the brokerage believes that globally zinc fundamentals have improved and it expects zinc to see a balanced demand supply scenario. Zinc prices are expected to improve from the current level of $1,900/tonne to $2,000-$2,100/tonne in FY14-15F.
According to Nomura Equity Research, the catalyst factor lies in a potential stake sale of 29.5% government stake to Sterlite Industries and this could be a trigger for the stock for investors in Hindustan Zinc. While the stock was trading around Rs119 last week, Nomura has predicted a target price of Rs161 along with its ‘Buy’ recommendation.
Nomura’s sensitivity analysis shows that Hindustan Zinc FY15F EPS would change by Rs0.70/share for every $100/tonne change in zinc prices and Rs0.20/share for $100/t change in lead prices. The analysis is shown in the table below:
Net Interest Margin expansion for LIC Housing Finance was driven by improvement in both—cost of funds and yield on assets, says Nomura Equity Research
LIC Housing Finance (LICHF) reported robust 4QFY13 numbers, driven by expansion in NIM (net interest margin) and lower than expected provisions. Net profit of Rs320 crore was largely driven by 10.4% beat in NII (net interest income) as NIM expanded 36 bps (basis points) sequentially to 2.45%. Asset quality improved during the quarter with GNPLs (gross non-performing loans) declining 12.5% sequentially to Rs470 crore. Loans were up 23.4% year-on-year with disbursals growth of 28.62% year-on-year. These observations were made by Nomura Equity Research in its Quick Note on LICHF.
NIM expansion was driven by improvement in both—cost of funds and yield on assets. Yield improved by 3bps quarter-on-quarter to 10.78%, while cost of funds declined by 27bps to 9.4% quarter-on-quarter. Consequently, spreads improved from 1.07% in 3Q13 to 1.38% in 4QFY13, point out Nomura Equity Research analysts.
Loan growth of 23.4% year-on-year was higher than Nomura’s expectation of 21.4% year-on-year; with disbursal growth of 16.7% year-on-year (disbursal growth in the retail segment was at 18.8% year-on-year). Sanctions grew 30.2% year-on-year. Loan growth was largely driven by continued traction in retail loans that grew 25.5% year-on-year (sequential increase of 7.5%); however, the higher yielding developer/ project loans declined 5.5% quarter-on-quarter (decline of 16.3% year-on-year). The developer/ project loans as a proportion of total loans declined further to 3.4% from 3.9% in the previous quarter.
Operating expenses and employee costs were marginally higher than Nomura’s expectations, with a cost-income ratio of 18.6% (down 113bps year-on-year). The brokerage further computes the total CAR (capital adequacy ratio) as standing at 15.8%, with a tier-1 ratio of 10.7%.
The key ratios of LICHF are given below:
According to Nomura, the key issues to watch in LICHF management’s discussion on Monday (29 April 2013) include the following: further colour on delinquencies, plans for the project loan book, FY14 loan growth guidance, plans for fresh capital issuance and trajectory for margins.
LICHF currently trades at 1.6x of Nomura’s FY14F ABV of Rs157 and 7.8x of Nomura’s FY14F EPS of Rs31.8. Nomura’s target price of Rs295 implies multiples of 1.9x of Nomura’s FY14F ABV and 9.3x of Nomura’s FY13F EPS.